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The effectiveness of discriminant models based on the example of the manufacturing sector

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  • Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak
  • Edward Radosiński

Abstract

The best models of bankruptcy prediction have been selected that can indicate the deteriorating situation of a company several years before bankruptcy occurs. There are a lot of methods for evaluating the financial statements of enterprises, but only a few can assess a company as a whole and recognise sufficiently early the deteriorating financial standing of a business. The matrix method was used to classify companies in order to assess the models. The correctness of the classification made by the models was tested based on data covering a period of five years before the bankruptcy of enterprises. To analyse the effectiveness of these discriminant models, the financial reports of manufacturing companies were used. Analysis of 33 models of bankruptcy prediction shows that only 5 models were characterized by sufficient predictive ability in the five years before the bankruptcy of enterprises. The results obtained show that so far a unique, accurate, optimal model, by which companies could be assessed with very high efficiency, has not been identified. That is why it is vital to continue research related to the construction of models enabling accurate evaluation of the financial condition of businesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak & Edward Radosiński, 2017. "The effectiveness of discriminant models based on the example of the manufacturing sector," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 27(3), pages 81-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:3:y:2017:p:81-97:id:1310
    DOI: 10.5277/ord170306
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    1. Gintare Giriūniene & Lukas Giriūnas & Mangirdas Morkunas & Laura Brucaite, 2019. "A Comparison on Leading Methodologies for Bankruptcy Prediction: The Case of the Construction Sector in Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak, 2023. "General bankruptcy prediction models for the Visegrád Group. The stability over time," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 33(4), pages 171-187.
    3. Andrzej Geise & Magdalena Kuczmarska & Jarosław Pawlowski, 2021. "Corporate Failure Prediction of Construction Companies in Poland: Evidence from Logit Model," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 99-116.
    4. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak & Piotr Staszkiewicz, 2020. "Cross-Country Application of Manufacturing Failure Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, February.
    5. Katarina Valaskova & Dominika Gajdosikova & Jaroslav Belas, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction in the post-pandemic period: A case study of Visegrad Group countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 253-293, March.
    6. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak, 2020. "Multi-class Models for Assessing the Financial Condition of Manufacturing Enterprises," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    7. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak, 2021. "Ratio Selection between Six Sectors in the Visegrad Group Using Parametric and Nonparametric ANOVA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.

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