IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/jicepx/v12y2021i03ns1793993321500162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Ly Dai Hung

    (VNU International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam2Vietnam Institute of Economics (VIE), Hanoi, Vietnam3Thang Long Institute of Mathematics and Applied Sciences (TIMAS), Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract

The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:12:y:2021:i:03:n:s1793993321500162
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993321500162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S1793993321500162
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S1793993321500162?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Public Safe Assets Determination," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 350-368, October.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    4. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    5. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Output-inflation Trade-off in the Presence of Foreign Capital: Evidence for Vietnam," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, December.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    10. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    12. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    13. Bernanke, B.S., 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States 2003-2007," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 13-26, February.
    14. Pierre Yared, 2019. "Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 115-140, Spring.
    15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
    16. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    17. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2019. "A Model of Safe Asset Determination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1230-1262, April.
    18. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    19. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    21. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Financial Openness and Growth: Short‐run Gain, Long‐run Pain?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 69-95, February.
    23. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    24. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States," NBER Working Papers 3419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    26. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    27. Arčabić Vladimir & Tica Josip & Lee Junsoo & Sonora Robert J., 2018. "Public debt and economic growth conundrum: nonlinearity and inter-temporal relationship," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Safe Assets at Financial Globalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "International Public Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-03090656, HAL.
    3. Ly Dai Hung & Bui Thi Hai Anh & Vo Tri Thanh, 2022. "International Debts Flows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Camarero, Mariam & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "Growth in a time of external imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 262-275.
    5. Hung Ly-Dai, 2019. "Non-linear pattern of international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 575-600, August.
    6. Evgenij Komarov, 2021. "Capital Flows and Endogenous Growth," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/365, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    7. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Exploring the causal relationships and allocation puzzle between portfolio investments and real sector growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Nguyen Hong Son & Ly Dai Hung, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment Absorption Capacity," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51.
    10. Katja Mann, 2021. "Does foreign capital go where the returns are? Financial integration and capital allocation efficiency1," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3945-3971, July.
    11. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding & Motohiro Yogo, 2023. "Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world," CEP Discussion Papers dp1965, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    13. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    14. Ly Dai Hung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Hoan, 2022. "International Capital Flows When Safe Assets Scarcity Matters," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(2), pages 151-167, December.
    15. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    16. Margaux MacDonald, 2015. "Patterns of International Capital Flows and Productivity Growth: New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 846-872, November.
    17. Oyinlola, Mutiu A. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Onitekun, Olumide, 2021. "Human capital, innovation, and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan African Region," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 609-625.
    18. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2022. "On the allocation puzzle and capital flows: Evidence from foreign direct investment and real sector growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 370-380, September.
    19. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    20. Davenport, Margaret, 2023. "The time path of productivity convergence and the international allocation of capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:12:y:2021:i:03:n:s1793993321500162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/jicep/jicep.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.