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An Empirical Investigation Of The Forward Interest Rate Term Structure

Author

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  • ANDREW MATACZ

    (Science and Finance, 109-111 rue Victor Hugo, 92532 Levallois, France)

  • JEAN-PHILIPPE BOUCHAUD

    (Science and Finance, 109-111 rue Victor Hugo, 92532 Levallois, France;
    Service de Physique de l'Etat Condensé, CEA-Saclay, Orme des Merisiers 91 191 Gif s/ Yvette, France)

Abstract

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of a previous investigation of the U.S. FRC. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk-like pricing. We find a striking correlation between the instantaneous FRC and the past spot trend over a certain time horizon, in agreement with the idea of an extrapolated trend effect. We present a model which can be adequately calibrated to account for these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Matacz & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation Of The Forward Interest Rate Term Structure," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 703-729.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:03:y:2000:i:04:n:s0219024900000838
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024900000838
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1999. "Phenomenology of the interest rate curve," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 209-232.
    2. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Carl Chiarella & Oh-Kang Kwon, 1999. "Classes of Interest Rate Models Under the HJM Framework," Research Paper Series 13, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen, 2005. "An Alternative Interest Rate Term Structure Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 717-735.
    2. Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500064, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    3. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007.
    4. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Belal E. Baaquie & Marakani Srikant & Mitch C. Warachka, 2003. "A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied to Hedging," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(05), pages 443-467.
    6. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen & Erik Schlögl, 2009. "Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, March.
    7. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
    8. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2014. "Stylised Properties of the Interest Rate Term Structure Under The Benchmark Approach," Research Paper Series 351, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Belal E. Baaquie & Marakani Srikant & Mitch Warachka, 2002. "A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied to Hedging," Papers cond-mat/0206457, arXiv.org.
    10. Tiziana Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2002. "How Does The Eurodollar Interest Rate Behave?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 107-122.
    11. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.
    12. Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Papers cond-mat/0403713, arXiv.org.
    13. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    14. Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Dragan Sestovic, 2000. "Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500031, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    15. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018.
    16. Baaquie, Belal E. & Liang, Cui & Warachka, Mitch C., 2007. "Hedging LIBOR derivatives in a field theory model of interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 730-748.
    17. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Sestovic, Dragan, 2001. "Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 517-525.

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