Phenomenology of the interest rate curve
AbstractThis paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity, with a prefactor which is comparable to the spot rate volatility. This suggests that forward rate market prices include a risk premium, comparable to the probable changes of the spot rate between now and maturity, which can be understood as a `Value-at-Risk' type of pricing. The instantaneous FRC however departs form a simple square-root law. The distortion is maximum around one year, and reflects the market anticipation of a local trend on the spot rate. This anticipated trend is shown to be calibrated on the past behaviour of the spot itself. We show that this is consistent with the volatility `hump' around one year found by several authors (and which we confirm). Finally, the number of independent components needed to interpret most of the FRC fluctuations is found to be small. We rationalize this by showing that the dynamical evolution of the FRC contains a stabilizing second derivative (line tension) term, which tends to suppress short scale distortions of the FRC. This shape dependent term could lead, in principle, to arbitrage. However, this arbitrage cannot be implemented in practice because of transaction costs. We suggest that the presence of transaction costs (or other market `imperfections') is crucial for model building, for a much wider class of models becomes eligible to represent reality.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management in its series Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive with number 500048.
Date of creation: Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Applied Mathematical Finance, 6, 209, (1999)
Other versions of this item:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-02-13 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-02-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2005-02-13 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Carabini, Christopher E, 1979. "The Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 895-914, September.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Schloegl, Erik & Daniel Sommer, 1997. "Factor Models and the Shape of the Term Structure," Discussion Paper Serie B 395, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Baaquie, Belal E. & Yang, Cao, 2009. "Empirical analysis of quantum finance interest rates models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(13), pages 2666-2681.
- Roncoroni, Andrea & Galluccio, Stefano & Guiotto, Paolo, 2010. "Shape factors and cross-sectional risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2320-2340, November.
- Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Design and Estimation of Quadratic Term Structure Models," Finance 0207014, EconWPA.
- Belal E. Baaquie, 1998. "Quantum Field Theory of Treasury Bonds," Papers cond-mat/9809199, arXiv.org.
- Rene Carmona & Michael Tehranchi, 2004. "A Characterization of Hedging Portfolios for Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Papers math/0407119, arXiv.org.
- D. Sornette, 1998. "``String'' formulation of the Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve," Papers cond-mat/9802136, arXiv.org.
- Rama Cont, 1999. "Modeling interest rate dynamics: an infinite-dimensional approach," Papers cond-mat/9902018, arXiv.org.
- Rama Cont, 2005. "Modeling Term Structure Dynamics: An Infinite Dimensional Approach," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 357-380.
- Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500064, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "An introduction to statistical finance," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 313238, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Belal E. Baaquie, 2001. "Quantum Field Theory of Forward Rates with Stochastic Volatility," Papers cond-mat/0110506, arXiv.org.
- Baaquie, Belal E. & Liang, Cui & Warachka, Mitch C., 2007. "Hedging LIBOR derivatives in a field theory model of interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 730-748.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marc Potters).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.