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Estimates Of Changes In County-Level Housing Prices In The United States Under Scenarios Of Future Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • FRANCES SUSSMAN

    (ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 1725 Eye Street, NW, Washington DC 20006, USA)

  • BANSARI SAHA

    (ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 100 Cambridgepark Drive, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA)

  • BRITTA G. BIERWAGEN

    (US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA)

  • CHRISTOPHER P. WEAVER

    (US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA)

  • WILL COOPER

    (ICF International, Environmental and Social Sustainability Division, 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA)

  • PHILIP E. MOREFIELD

    (US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 8601-P, Washington DC 20460, USA)

  • JOHN V. THOMAS

    (US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Sustainable Communities, Community Assistance and Research Division, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, MC 1807-T, Washington DC 20460, USA)

Abstract

Climate in a given location influences people's housing decisions, and changes in climate may affect these decisions in ways that alter our understanding of desirable locations. This study examines the potential sensitivity of future housing prices in the United States to changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity by developing a hedonic regression model of the relationship between climate variables and housing prices and exploring implications of different climate futures for the amenity value of climate in these prices. The model shows a significant relationship between housing prices in urban areas and certain climate variables. The study then examines the sensitivity of the amenity value of climate to future climate scenarios. Results suggest that, nationally, climate change represents a disamenity, particularly in central-to-southeastern states. However, detailed housing prices vary spatially and among scenarios. Seasonal variation in temperature, including the relative magnitudes of the change in January and July temperatures, is a key determinant of housing price change, contributing to variation across both climate scenarios and geographic location.

Suggested Citation

  • Frances Sussman & Bansari Saha & Britta G. Bierwagen & Christopher P. Weaver & Will Cooper & Philip E. Morefield & John V. Thomas, 2014. "Estimates Of Changes In County-Level Housing Prices In The United States Under Scenarios Of Future Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:05:y:2014:i:03:n:s2010007814500092
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007814500092
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McGranahan, David A., 1999. "Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change," Agricultural Economic Reports 33955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. David Albouy & Walter Graf & Ryan Kellogg & Hendrik Wolff, 2016. "Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 205-246.
    3. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2009. "The amenity value of climate to households in Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 150-167, January.
    4. Sinha, Paramita & Cropper, Maureen L., 2013. "The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-01, Resources for the Future.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rivera, Nathaly M. & Loveridge, Scott, 2022. "Coal-to-gas fuel switching and its effects on housing prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

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