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Agent‐Based Simulation for Human‐Induced Hazard Analysis

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  • William M. Bulleit
  • Matthew W. Drewek

Abstract

Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human‐induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent‐based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human‐induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power‐law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic‐based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human‐induced hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • William M. Bulleit & Matthew W. Drewek, 2011. "Agent‐Based Simulation for Human‐Induced Hazard Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 205-217, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:2:p:205-217
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01497.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1996. "The Sciences of the Artificial, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262691914, December.
    2. Bernard Harris, 2004. "Mathematical Methods in Combatting Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 985-988, August.
    3. Yacov Y. Haimes & Thomas Longstaff, 2002. "The Role of Risk Analysis in the Protection of Critical Infrastructures Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 439-444, June.
    4. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, December.
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