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Robust dynamic energy use and climate change

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  • Xin Li
  • Borghan Narajabad
  • Ted Temzelides

Abstract

We study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which agents are concerned about model uncertainty regarding climate change. An externality from greenhouse gas emissions damages the economy's capital stock. We assume that the mapping from climate change to damages is subject to uncertainty, as opposed to risk, and we use robust control to study efficiency and optimal policy. We obtain a sharp analytical solution for the implied environmental externality and characterize dynamic optimal taxation. The optimal tax that restores the socially optimal allocation is Pigouvian. We study optimal output growth in the presence and in the absence of concerns about model uncertainty, and find that these can lead to substantially different conclusions regarding the optimal emissions and the optimal mix of fossil fuel. In particular, the optimal use of coal will be significantly lower on a robust path, while the optimal use of oil/gas will edge down.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Li & Borghan Narajabad & Ted Temzelides, 2016. "Robust dynamic energy use and climate change," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 821-857, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:7:y:2016:i:3:p:821-857
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    2. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    3. Finnegan, Stephen & Sharples, Steve & Johnston, Tom & Fulton, Matt, 2018. "The carbon impact of a UK safari park – Application of the GHG protocol using measured energy data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 256-264.
    4. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Emmerling, Johannes, 2018. "Climate engineering under deep uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 207-224.
    5. Bernardino Adão & Borghan Narajabad, 2021. "Scrapping, Renewable Technology Adoption, and Growth," Working Papers w202111, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    7. Lars Peter Hansen, 2021. "Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 371-396, August.
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2021. "Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Liu, Chao & Akintayo, Adedotun & Jiang, Zhanhong & Henze, Gregor P. & Sarkar, Soumik, 2018. "Multivariate exploration of non-intrusive load monitoring via spatiotemporal pattern network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1106-1122.
    10. António R. Antunes & Bernardino Adão & João Valle e Azevedo & Nuno Lourenço & Miguel Gouveia, 2022. "Alterações climáticas e economia: uma introdução," Working Papers o202201, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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