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Hurdles and steps: Estimating demand for solar photovoltaics

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  • Kenneth Gillingham
  • Tsvetan Tsvetanov

Abstract

This paper estimates demand for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems using a new approach to address three empirical challenges that often arise with count data: excess zeros, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity of price. Our results imply a price elasticity of demand for solar PV systems of −0.65. Counterfactual policy simulations indicate that reducing state financial incentives in half would have led to 9% fewer new installations in Connecticut in 2014. Calculations suggest a subsidy program cost of $364/tCO2 assuming solar displaces natural gas. Our Poisson hurdle approach holds promise for modeling the demand for many new technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gillingham & Tsvetan Tsvetanov, 2019. "Hurdles and steps: Estimating demand for solar photovoltaics," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 275-310, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:10:y:2019:i:1:p:275-310
    DOI: 10.3982/QE919
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Carattini & Béla Figge & Alexander Gordan & Andreas Löschel, 2022. "Municipal Building Codes and the Adoption of Solar Photovoltaics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10015, CESifo.
    2. Gerlagh, Reyer & Hejimans, Roweno J. R. K. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2020. "Endogenous Emission Caps Always Produce a Green Paradox," Working Paper Series 4-2020, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    3. Joan Costa‐Font & Cristina Vilaplana‐Prieto, 2020. "‘More than one red herring'? Heterogeneous effects of ageing on health care utilisation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(S1), pages 8-29, October.
    4. Li, Yumin, 2018. "Incentive pass-through in the California Solar Initiative – An analysis based on third-party contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 534-541.
    5. Gao, Xue, 2021. "The comparative impact of solar policies on entrepreneurship in the U.S. solar photovoltaic installation industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Jacquelyn Pless & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2019. "Pass-Through as a Test for Market Power: An Application to Solar Subsidies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 367-401, October.
    7. Palm, Alvar & Lantz, Björn, 2020. "Information dissemination and residential solar PV adoption rates: The effect of an information campaign in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Best, Rohan & Marrone, Mauricio & Linnenluecke, Martina, 2023. "Meta-analysis of the role of equity dimensions in household solar panel adoption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Ros, Agustin J. & Sai, Sai Shetty, 2023. "Residential rooftop solar demand in the U.S. and the impact of net energy metering and electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Best, Rohan & Li, Han & Trück, Stefan & Truong, Chi, 2021. "Actual uptake of home batteries: The key roles of capital and policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Gerlagh, Reyer & Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K. & Rodendahl, Knut Einar, 2019. "Endogenous Emission Caps Always Induce a Green Paradox," Other publications TiSEM a629a851-9ea0-4022-aa1b-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Best, Rohan & Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2019. "Evaluating the effectiveness of Australia's Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme for rooftop solar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    14. Kenneth T. Gillingham & Bryan Bollinger, 2021. "Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7091-7112, November.
    15. Bryan Bollinger & Naim Darghouth & Kenneth Gillingham & Andres Gonzalez-Lira, 2023. "Valuing Technology Complementarities: Rooftop Solar and Energy Storage," NBER Working Papers 32003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Morakinyo O Adetutu & Kayode A Odusanya & Eleni Stathopoulou & Thomas G Weyman-Jones, 2023. "Environmental regulation, taxes, and activism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 460-489.
    17. Gillingham, Kenneth & Tsvetanov, Tsvetan, 2018. "Nudging energy efficiency audits: Evidence from a field experiment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 303-316.
    18. Xingchi Shen & Yueming Lucy Qiu & Pengfei Liu & Anand Patwardhan, 2022. "The Effect of Rebate and Loan Incentives on Residential Heat Pump Adoption: Evidence from North Carolina," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(3), pages 741-789, July.
    19. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2019. "Endogenous Emission Caps Always Induce a Green Paradox," CESifo Working Paper Series 7862, CESifo.
    20. Abajian, Alexander & Pretnar, Nick, 2023. "Subsidies for Close Substitutes: Evidence from Residential Solar Systems," MPRA Paper 118171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Best, Rohan & Chareunsy, Andrea & Li, Han, 2021. "Equity and effectiveness of Australian small-scale solar schemes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    22. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J R K Heijmans & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2021. "An endogenous emissions cap produces a green paradox [Combining price and quantity controls under partitioned environmental regulation]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(107), pages 485-522.
    23. Sébastien Houde & Wenjun Wang, 2022. "The Incidence of the U.S.-China Solar Trade War," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/372, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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