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Cross‐hedging and forward‐contract pricing of electricity in the Pacific Northwest

Author

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  • Chi‐Keung Woo
  • Ira Horowitz
  • Arne Olson
  • Andrew DeBenedictis
  • David Miller
  • Jack Moore

Abstract

This paper develops a linear regression model for using actively traded NYMEX natural gas futures as a cross-hedge against electricity spot‐price risk in the Pacific Northwest and for pricing the forward contracts in the presence of temperature and hydro risks. Our approach comports with reality and provides power purchasers with an effective instrument through which they can hedge their electricity bets through natural gas futures. It also demonstrates the sharp month‐to‐month variations in the natural gas futures' optimal hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness. Finally, it finds significant risk premiums in the Pacific Northwest forward prices, supporting the hypothesis that forward‐contract buyers are relatively more risk‐averse than sellers. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi‐Keung Woo & Ira Horowitz & Arne Olson & Andrew DeBenedictis & David Miller & Jack Moore, 2011. "Cross‐hedging and forward‐contract pricing of electricity in the Pacific Northwest," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 265-279, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:32:y:2011:i:4:p:265-279
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/mde.1533
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Venizelou, Venizelos & Philippou, Nikolas & Hadjipanayi, Maria & Makrides, George & Efthymiou, Venizelos & Georghiou, George E., 2018. "Development of a novel time-of-use tariff algorithm for residential prosumer price-based demand side management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 633-646.
    2. Matsumoto, Takuji & Yamada, Yuji, 2021. "Simultaneous hedging strategy for price and volume risks in electricity businesses using energy and weather derivatives1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    4. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    5. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "Renewable energy's vanishing premium in Texas's retail electricity pricing plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 764-770.
    6. Brown, D.P. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S., 2020. "Residential electricity pricing in Texas's competitive retail market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Chen, Sheng-Hung & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "Natural gas price, market fundamentals and hedging effectiveness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 321-337.
    8. Pousinho, H.M.I. & Mendes, V.M.F. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2011. "A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4935-4942.

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