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Valuation of bitcoin options

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  • Melanie Cao
  • Batur Celik

Abstract

We propose an equilibrium valuation model for bitcoin options by extending Cao. Bitcoin is interpreted as a foreign currency in a small open economy where money supply and aggregate dividend are exogenous. The equilibrium bitcoin prices increase with diffusive and jump risks of these two exogenous factors. Analytical option pricing formulas are obtained with Merton's model as a special case. Static analysis reveals that a bitcoin call (put) option value increases (decreases) with the money supply growth rate. Numerical analysis shows that all risks lead to a positive premium in option prices relative to the Black–Scholes model.

Suggested Citation

  • Melanie Cao & Batur Celik, 2021. "Valuation of bitcoin options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1007-1026, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:7:p:1007-1026
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kuo-Shing Chen & Yu-Chuan Huang, 2021. "Detecting Jump Risk and Jump-Diffusion Model for Bitcoin Options Pricing and Hedging," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Huang, Jing-Zhi & Ni, Jun & Xu, Li, 2022. "Leverage effect in cryptocurrency markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Carol Alexander & Ding Chen & Arben Imeraj, 2021. "Inverse and Quanto Inverse Options in a Black-Scholes World," Papers 2107.12041, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.

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