IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/isacfm/v12y2004i4p261-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

Author

Listed:
  • Sancho Salcedo‐Sanz
  • Mario DePrado‐Cumplido
  • María Jesús Segovia‐Vargas
  • Fernando Pérez‐Cruz
  • Carlos Bousoño‐Calzón

Abstract

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sancho Salcedo‐Sanz & Mario DePrado‐Cumplido & María Jesús Segovia‐Vargas & Fernando Pérez‐Cruz & Carlos Bousoño‐Calzón, 2004. "Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 261-281, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:12:y:2004:i:4:p:261-281
    DOI: 10.1002/isaf.255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.255
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/isaf.255?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. Slowinski & C. Zopounidis, 1995. "Application of the Rough Set Approach to Evaluation of Bankruptcy Risk," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 27-41, March.
    2. P. S. Bradley & Usama M. Fayyad & O. L. Mangasarian, 1999. "Mathematical Programming for Data Mining: Formulations and Challenges," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 217-238, August.
    3. Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
    4. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    6. Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Multicriteria decision aid in financial management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 404-415, December.
    7. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    8. Wim Hordijk & Peter F. Stadler, 1998. "Amplitude Spectra of Fitness Landscapes," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 39-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    2. Beynon, Malcolm J. & Peel, Michael J., 2001. "Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 561-576, December.
    3. Zopounidis, Constantin & Doumpos, Michael, 2001. "A preference disaggregation decision support system for financial classification problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 402-413, April.
    4. S. Balcaen & H. Ooghe, 2004. "Alternative methodologies in studies on business failure: do they produce better results than the classical statistical methods?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/249, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    6. Thomas E. Mckee, 2000. "Developing a bankruptcy prediction model via rough sets theory," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 159-173, September.
    7. Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
    8. Greta Falavigna, 2006. "Models for Default Risk Analysis: Focus on Artificial Neural Networks, Model Comparisons, Hybrid Frameworks," CERIS Working Paper 200610, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    9. Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
    10. Adam Fadlalla & Chien-Hua Lin, 2001. "An Analysis of the Applications of Neural Networks in Finance," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 112-122, August.
    11. Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 1999. "A Multicriteria Discrimination Method for the Prediction of Financial Distress: The Case of Greece," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 71-101, June.
    12. Parag C. Pendharkar, 2011. "Probabilistic Approaches For Credit Screening And Bankruptcy Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 177-193, October.
    13. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    14. Davalos, Sergio & Gritta, Richard D. & Adrangi, Bahram, 2007. "Deriving Rules for Forecasting Air Carrier Financial Stress and Insolvency: A Genetic Algorithm Approach," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 46(2).
    15. José Willer Prado & Valderí Castro Alcântara & Francisval Melo Carvalho & Kelly Carvalho Vieira & Luiz Kennedy Cruz Machado & Dany Flávio Tonelli, 2016. "Multivariate analysis of credit risk and bankruptcy research data: a bibliometric study involving different knowledge fields (1968–2014)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(3), pages 1007-1029, March.
    16. Şaban Çelik & Bora Aktan & Bruce Burton, 2022. "Firm dynamics and bankruptcy processes: A new theoretical model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 567-591, April.
    17. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    18. Haider A. Khan, 2004. "General Conclusions: From Crisis to a Global Political Economy of Freedom," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Global Markets and Financial Crises in Asia, chapter 9, pages 193-211, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Arthur Charpentier & Emmanuel Flachaire & Antoine Ly, 2017. "Econom\'etrie et Machine Learning," Papers 1708.06992, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    20. Lin, Fengyi & Yeh, Ching Chiang & Lee, Meng Yuan, 2013. "A Hybrid Business Failure Prediction Model Using Locally Linear Embedding And Support Vector Machines," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 82-97, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:12:y:2004:i:4:p:261-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1099-1174/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.