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Monetary policy spillovers in emerging economies

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  • Nahiyan Faisal Azad
  • Apostolos Serletis

Abstract

This paper explores for spillovers from monetary policy in the United States to a number of emerging market economies. We estimate the bivariate structural GARCH‐in‐Mean VAR in the U.S. monetary policy rate and the policy rate of each of six emerging economies that target the inflation rate—Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Romania, Serbia, and South Africa. We also estimate the same model in the U.S. monetary policy rate and the exchange rate (against the U.S. dollar) of each of six emerging economies that target the exchange rate—Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Comoros, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Montenegro. Our evidence suggests that positive (negative) U.S. monetary policy shocks tend to appreciate (depreciate) the currencies of the exchange rate targeting emerging economies but have an ambiguous effect on the policy rates of the inflation targeting emerging economies. Moreover, monetary policy uncertainty in the United States leads to an increase in policy rates in those emerging economies that target the inflation rate and to a depreciation of the currencies of those emerging economies that target the exchange rate.

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  • Nahiyan Faisal Azad & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary policy spillovers in emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 664-683, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:25:y:2020:i:4:p:664-683
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1773
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    1. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "COVID-19 and Exchange Rates: Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 67-84, June.
    3. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo & Eurilton Araújo & Marcos Valli Jorge & Alexandre Kornelius & Leonardo Sousa Gomes Marinho, 2023. "Brazilian Macroeconomic Dynamics Redux: Shocks, Frictions, and Unemployment in SAMBA Model," Working Papers Series 578, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Nicolas Eterovic & Dalibor Eterovic, 2022. "Stocks, Bonds and the US Dollar - Measuring Domestic and International Market Developments in an Emerging Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 964, Central Bank of Chile.

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