IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v2y2020i3-4ne34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19

Author

Listed:
  • George Cairns
  • George Wright

Abstract

In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the very recent past? We conclude that these quickly‐produced scenarios are not embedded in the realities of affected communities and that the scenario development process should be enhanced to either involve power‐holding stakeholders or, more straightforwardly, to activate local consideration of how the affected community might/might not wish to react to localized dilemmas. Both enhancements will provide action‐orientated insights, beyond that of simply appreciating possible global/regional futures.

Suggested Citation

  • George Cairns & George Wright, 2020. "A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:2:y:2020:i:3-4:n:e34
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.34
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lehoux, P. & Miller, F.A. & Williams-Jones, B., 2020. "Anticipatory governance and moral imagination: Methodological insights from a scenario-based public deliberation study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    3. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    4. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    5. Oliver, John J. & Parrett, Emma, 2018. "Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 339-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    2. Crawford, Megan M. & Wright, George, 2022. "The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    4. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    5. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    7. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    8. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Kozicka, Marta & Gotor, Elisabetta & Ocimati, Walter & de Jager, Tamar & Kikulwe, Enoch & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2020. "Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Ilkka Tuomi, 2019. "Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    11. John J. Oliver, 2023. "Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    12. George Cairns, 2021. "Resistance to hegemony in theorising scenario methods: A manifesto in response to Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    13. James Derbyshire, 2019. "Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    14. Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George & Wright, George, 2015. "Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-52.
    15. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
    17. Frith, David & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2020. "Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Young Won Park & Paul Hong, 2022. "A Research Framework for Sustainable Digital Innovation: Case Studies of Japanese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    19. Piotr Daniluk, 2021. "Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    20. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Hansen, Meiken & Selin, Cynthia, 2021. "Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:2:y:2020:i:3-4:n:e34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.