IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i15p4639-d605704.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Daniluk

    (Faculty of Security Studies, General Tadeusz Kosciuszko Military University of Land Forces, Czajkowskiego 109, 51-147 Wrocław, Poland)

Abstract

This article presents the research results related to the methodology of threat analysis to implement in energy security. In the conducted studies, the world’s output in scenario planning and the most famous cases of global security and technology scenarios were analysed. These projects were the Lisbon Group analysis, Shell’s scenario planning concepts, and the US National Intelligence Council’s long-term analysis. In this way, I demonstrated the limitations of a scenario-based view of the issues under study, resulting mainly from considering only one type of environment. The formulated conclusions made it possible to build the author’s model of the strategic analysis process for the energy security sector. It goes beyond scenario analysis, complementing it with the sector, portfolio, and integrated analysis methods. The strategic analysis built in this way takes into account the achievements of many scientific disciplines, namely, technology, security, strategic management, foresight, international relations, and military. The multidisciplinary knowledge used to build the proposed concept will allow one to consider the increasing complexity of the global environment. Only such a scientific approach nowadays allows practical analysis and planning in the long term. Areas of special attention in strategic analysis, which constitute directions for developing research methodology, are indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Daniluk, 2021. "Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:15:p:4639-:d:605704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4639/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4639/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gisela Cardoso & Elizabeth Moreira Santos & Yibeltal Kiflie & Kifle Woldemichael & Suzanne Wilson & Wuleta Lemma, 2017. "Strategic analysis of tuberculosis prevention and control actions in Brazil and Ethiopia: one size fits all?," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 62(2), pages 305-315, March.
    2. Michael Hergert & Deigan Morris, 1989. "Accounting data for value chain analysis," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 175-188, March.
    3. H. Igor Ansoff, 1979. "Strategic Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-02971-6.
    4. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    5. Cabeza, Luisa F. & Rincón, Lídia & Vilariño, Virginia & Pérez, Gabriel & Castell, Albert, 2014. "Life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle energy analysis (LCEA) of buildings and the building sector: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 394-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radoslaw Wisniewski & Piotr Daniluk & Tomasz Kownacki & Aneta Nowakowska-Krystman, 2022. "Energy System Development Scenarios: Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, April.
    2. Radoslaw Wisniewski & Piotr Daniluk & Aneta Nowakowska-Krystman & Tomasz Kownacki, 2022. "Critical Success Factors of the Energy Sector Security Strategy: The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-27, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis M. López-Ochoa & Jesús Las-Heras-Casas & Luis M. López-González & César García-Lozano, 2020. "Energy Renovation of Residential Buildings in Cold Mediterranean Zones Using Optimized Thermal Envelope Insulation Thicknesses: The Case of Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-34, March.
    2. Patricia González-Vallejo & Radu Muntean & Jaime Solís-Guzmán & Madelyn Marrero, 2020. "Carbon Footprint of Dwelling Construction in Romania and Spain. A Comparative Analysis with the OERCO2 Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    3. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    4. Jin-Young Park & Byung-Soo Kim & Dong-Eun Lee, 2021. "Environmental and Cost Impact Assessment of Pavement Materials Using IBEES Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Dzikuć Maciej, 2015. "Environmental management with the use of LCA in the Polish energy system," Management, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 89-97, May.
    6. Qianqian Zhao & Junzhen Li & Roman Fediuk & Sergey Klyuev & Darya Nemova, 2021. "Benefit Evaluation Model of Prefabricated Buildings in Seasonally Frozen Regions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Chau, C.K. & Xu, J.M. & Leung, T.M. & Ng, W.Y., 2017. "Evaluation of the impacts of end-of-life management strategies for deconstruction of a high-rise concrete framed office building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1595-1603.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    9. Ana Ferreira & Manuel Duarte Pinheiro & Jorge de Brito & Ricardo Mateus, 2022. "Embodied vs. Operational Energy and Carbon in Retail Building Shells: A Case Study in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Kong, Minjin & Lee, Minhyun & Kang, Hyuna & Hong, Taehoon, 2021. "Development of a framework for evaluating the contents and usability of the building life cycle assessment tool," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Stanislav Shmelev & Harrison Roger Brook, 2021. "Macro Sustainability across Countries: Key Sector Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-46, October.
    12. Mastrucci, Alessio & Marvuglia, Antonino & Leopold, Ulrich & Benetto, Enrico, 2017. "Life Cycle Assessment of building stocks from urban to transnational scales: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 316-332.
    13. Vivek Aggarwal & Chandan Swaroop Meena & Ashok Kumar & Tabish Alam & Anuj Kumar & Arijit Ghosh & Aritra Ghosh, 2020. "Potential and Future Prospects of Geothermal Energy in Space Conditioning of Buildings: India and Worldwide Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Francesco Ricciotti, 2020. "From value chain to value network: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 191-212, May.
    15. Diana Carolina Gámez-García & José Manuel Gómez-Soberón & Ramón Corral-Higuera & Héctor Saldaña-Márquez & María Consolación Gómez-Soberón & Susana Paola Arredondo-Rea, 2018. "A Cradle to Handover Life Cycle Assessment of External Walls: Choice of Materials and Prognosis of Elements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-24, August.
    16. Eloise Leonora Gnoatto & Andreza Kalbusch & Elisa Henning, 2019. "Evaluation of the Environmental and Economic Impacts on the Life Cycle of Different Solutions for Toilet Flush Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-12, August.
    17. Zhenying Zhang & Jiaqi Wang & Meiyuan Yang & Kai Gong & Mei Yang, 2022. "Environmental and Economic Analysis of Heating Solutions for Rural Residences in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Kozicka, Marta & Gotor, Elisabetta & Ocimati, Walter & de Jager, Tamar & Kikulwe, Enoch & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2020. "Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    19. Sibilio, Sergio & Rosato, Antonio & Ciampi, Giovanni & Scorpio, Michelangelo & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2017. "Building-integrated trigeneration system: Energy, environmental and economic dynamic performance assessment for Italian residential applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 920-933.
    20. Won-Jun Park & Rakhyun Kim & Seungjun Roh & Hoki Ban, 2020. "Identifying the Major Construction Wastes in the Building Construction Phase Based on Life Cycle Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-14, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:15:p:4639-:d:605704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.