IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/envmet/v33y2022i4ne2719.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantile based modeling of diurnal temperature range with the five‐parameter lambda distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Silius M. Vandeskog
  • Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
  • Ingelin Steinsland
  • Finn Lindgren

Abstract

Diurnal temperature range is an important variable in climate science that can provide information regarding climate variability and climate change. Changes in diurnal temperature range can have implications for hydrology, human health and ecology, among others. Yet, the statistical literature on modeling diurnal temperature range is lacking. In this article we propose to model the distribution of diurnal temperature range using the five‐parameter lambda (FPL) distribution. Additionally, in order to model diurnal temperature range with explanatory variables, we propose a distributional quantile regression model that combines quantile regression with marginal modeling using the FPL distribution. Inference is performed using the method of quantiles. The models are fitted to 30 years of daily observations of diurnal temperature range from 112 weather stations in the southern part of Norway. The flexible FPL distribution shows great promise as a model for diurnal temperature range, and performs well against competing models. The distributional quantile regression model is fitted to diurnal temperature range data using geographic, orographic, and climatological explanatory variables. It performs well and captures much of the spatial variation in the distribution of diurnal temperature range in Norway.

Suggested Citation

  • Silius M. Vandeskog & Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Ingelin Steinsland & Finn Lindgren, 2022. "Quantile based modeling of diurnal temperature range with the five‐parameter lambda distribution," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:4:n:e2719
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2719
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/env.2719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    2. John O'Sullivan & Conor Sweeney & Andrew C. Parnell, 2020. "Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum temperatures in County Dublin, Ireland," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    3. Howard D. Bondell & Brian J. Reich & Huixia Wang, 2010. "Noncrossing quantile regression curve estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(4), pages 825-838.
    4. Sajjad Haider Bhatti & Shahzad Hussain & Tanvir Ahmad & Muhammad Aslam & Muhammad Aftab & Muhammad Ali Raza, 2018. "Efficient estimation of Pareto model: Some modified percentile estimators," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Agostino Tarsitano, 2010. "Comparing Estimation Methods for the FPLD," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2010, pages 1-16, June.
    6. Michael L. Stein, 2021. "A parametric model for distributions with flexible behaviour in both tails," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), December.
    7. Xiubao Sun & Chunzai Wang & Guoyu Ren, 2021. "Changes in the diurnal temperature range over East Asia from 1901 to 2018 and its relationship with precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Stella W. Self & Christopher S. McMahan & Brook T. Russell, 2021. "Identifying meteorological drivers of PM2.5 levels via a Bayesian spatial quantile regression," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), August.
    9. Torsten Hothorn & Thomas Kneib & Peter Bühlmann, 2014. "Conditional transformation models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(1), pages 3-27, January.
    10. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    11. Michael L. Stein, 2021. "A parametric model for distributions with flexible behavior in both tails," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Henzi & Johanna F. Ziegel & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Isotonic distributional regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(5), pages 963-993, November.
    2. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    3. Jenny Brynjarsdottir & Jonathan Hobbs & Amy Braverman & Lukas Mandrake, 2018. "Optimal Estimation Versus MCMC for $$\mathrm{{CO}}_{2}$$ CO 2 Retrievals," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(2), pages 297-316, June.
    4. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    5. Nico Keilman, 2020. "Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 49-64.
    6. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    7. Robu, Valentin & Chalkiadakis, Georgios & Kota, Ramachandra & Rogers, Alex & Jennings, Nicholas R., 2016. "Rewarding cooperative virtual power plant formation using scoring rules," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 19-28.
    8. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    9. Bansal, Prateek & Krueger, Rico & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    11. de Haan, Thomas, 2020. "Eliciting belief distributions using a random two-level partitioning of the state space," Working Papers in Economics 1/20, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    12. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting," Papers 2006.11265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    13. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    14. Luisa Bisaglia & Matteo Grigoletto, 2021. "A new time-varying model for forecasting long-memory series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 139-155, March.
    15. Antonello Maruotti & Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, 2023. "CO2 emissions and growth: A bivariate bidimensional mean‐variance random effects model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), August.
    16. Tomás Marinozzi, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 81-110, May.
    17. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso & Grassi, Stefano, 2018. "A data-cleaning augmented Kalman filter for robust estimation of state space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 107-123.
    18. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    19. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    20. Philémon Gamet & Jonathan Jalbert, 2022. "A flexible extended generalized Pareto distribution for tail estimation," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:4:n:e2719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1180-4009/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.