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Of Time and the Development of Partisan Polarization

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  • Laura Stoker
  • M. Kent Jennings

Abstract

In this article we address the topic of increasing partisan polarization in the American mass public, focusing on the twin influences of individual‐level development and cohort replacement and the interaction between the two. We posit a model of individual development that consists of declining openness to change beyond young adulthood, an increase in party‐issue constraint as age advances, and cohort‐specific responsiveness to changes in the partisan environment. Results from a long‐term panel study provide initial evidence of these dynamics. We then use simulations to generate expectations about how these developmental processes play out across cohorts, issues, and time. These expectations are evaluated through a cohort analysis of National Election Studies data from 1972 to 2004. Overall, our results provide a new perspective on the dynamics of individual political development and their implications for the timing, extent, and future trajectory of partisan polarization in the U.S. electorate.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Stoker & M. Kent Jennings, 2008. "Of Time and the Development of Partisan Polarization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 619-635, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:52:y:2008:i:3:p:619-635
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00333.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jennings, M. Kent & Stoker, Laura, 1999. "The Persistence of the Past: The Class of 1965 Turns Fifty," Institute for Social Science Research, Working Paper Series qt0pk6z5s4, Institute for Social Science Research, UCLA.
    2. Nicholas A. Valentino & David O. Sears, 2005. "Old Times There Are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 672-688, July.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Veronika Patkós, 2023. "Measuring partisan polarization with partisan differences in satisfaction with the government: the introduction of a new comparative approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 39-57, February.
    3. Jackson, Robert & Rainey, Carlisle, 2023. "Generation Effects on Americans’ Symbolic Ideology and Attitudes Toward the Economic Role of Government," SocArXiv ck7de, Center for Open Science.
    4. Juan Carlos Huerta & Beatriz Cuartas, 2021. "Red to Purple? Changing Demographics and Party Change in Texas," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1330-1348, July.
    5. Jungkunz, Sebastian & Marx, Paul, 2021. "Income changes do not influence political participation: Evidence from comparative panel data," ifso working paper series 11, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    6. Danielle Resnick & Daniela Casale, 2011. "The Political Participation of Africa's Youth: Turnout, Partisanship, and Protest," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Sebastian Jungkunz & Paul Marx, 2021. "Income Changes Do Not Influence Political Participation: Evidence from Comparative Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1129, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    8. repec:gig:joupla:v:2:y:2010:i:3:p:3-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rodriguez, Javier M., 2018. "Health disparities, politics, and the maintenance of the status quo: A new theory of inequality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 36-43.
    10. Zuzana Ringlerova, 2022. "The Impact of Immigration on Attitudes toward the EU: Evidence from a Three‐Country Survey Experiment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 391-407, March.
    11. Bergh, Andreas & Öhrvall, Richard, 2018. "A sticky trait: Social trust among Swedish expatriates in countries with varying institutional quality," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1146-1157.
    12. Henry E. Brady & Kay Lehman Schlozman & Sidney Verba, 2015. "Political Mobility and Political Reproduction from Generation to Generation," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 657(1), pages 149-173, January.
    13. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2014. "Conflict and the Formation of Political Beliefs in Africa," HiCN Working Papers 164, Households in Conflict Network.

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