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Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China

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  • Zhihao Zheng
  • Shida R. Henneberry
  • Yinyu Zhao
  • Ying Gao

Abstract

A complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time‐series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at‐home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas at‐home food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhihao Zheng & Shida R. Henneberry & Yinyu Zhao & Ying Gao, 2019. "Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 301-328, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:301-328
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.21592
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zheng, Zhihao & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari, 2010. "The Impact of Changes in Income Distribution on Current and Future Food Demand in Urban China," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Gale, H. Frederick, Jr. & Huang, Kuo S., 2007. "Demand For Food Quantity And Quality In China," Economic Research Report 7252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Shenggen Fan & Eric J. Wailes & Gail L. Cramer, 1995. "Household Demand in Rural China: A Two-Stage LES-AIDS Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 54-62.
    4. Giancarlo Moschini, 1995. "Units of Measurement and the Stone Index in Demand System Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 63-68.
    5. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gale, Fred & Dong, Fengxia, 2023. "China’s Meat Consumption: Growth Potential," Economic Research Report 338955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Bo Chen & Wuyang Hu & Qingjie Zhou, 2020. "Effects of local and national advertising across brands: the case of yogurt in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1260-1281, October.
    3. Xinru Han & Ping Xue & Wenbo Zhu & Xiudong Wang & Guojing Li, 2022. "Shrinking Working-Age Population and Food Demand: Evidence from Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Li, Shaoting & Chen, Xuan & Ren, Yanjun & Glauben, Thomas, 2024. "The impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption and its environmental outcomes: Evidence from China," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 414-429.
    5. Han, Xinru & Li, Guojing, 2021. "Shrinking Working-Age Population and Food Demand: Evidence from Rural China," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315000, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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