IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/suvges/v33y2023i3p86-100n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from Macedonian Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Deari Fitim

    (1 South East European University, Republic of North Macedonia)

  • Ulu Yasemin

    (2 Saginaw Valley State University, USA)

Abstract

We examine turn of the month effect for the Macedonian Stock Exchange using daily return data utilizing OLS and pooled regression analysis for the 10 components of the MBI10 index. We find that for most of the individual stock returns the coefficients of the turn-of-the-month effect are all positive indicating the presence of the turn-of-the-month effect. When the data is pooled, we obtain even stronger results. The study confirms that the turn-of-the-month effect holds for Macedonian Stock Exchange which has not been examined before. Therefore, on average, the daily return over the turn-of-the-month effect period is significantly higher than the daily return over the rest-of-the-month period and hence providing room for more investment opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Deari Fitim & Ulu Yasemin, 2023. "The Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from Macedonian Stock Exchange," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(3), pages 86-100, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:suvges:v:33:y:2023:i:3:p:86-100:n:4
    DOI: 10.2478/sues-2023-0015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2023-0015
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/sues-2023-0015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shanaev, Savva & Shuraeva, Arina & Fedorova, Svetlana, 2022. "The Groundhog Day stock market anomaly," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    2. Xiaofeng Zhao & Kartono Liano & William G. Hardin, 2004. "Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 958-973, December.
    3. Gultekin, Mustafa N & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1987. "Stock Return Anomalies and the Tests of the APT," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1213-1224, December.
    4. Hyung-Suk Choi & Doojin Ryu & Sangik Seok, 2017. "The turn-of-the-year effect in mutual fund flows," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 131-157, May.
    5. Charles Bram Cadsby, 1992. "The CAPM and the Calendar: Empirical Anomalies and the Risk-Return Relationship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1543-1561, November.
    6. Julijana Angelovska, 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Market Anomaly - Day of the Week Effect on a Small Emerging Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 314-322, January.
    7. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    8. Jordan, Susan D. & Jordan, Bradford D., 1991. "Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 269-285, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Zhao, Lu & Lin, Lei, 2022. "Does behavioral-motivated volatility effect explain the beta anomaly? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    11. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Wang, Changyu & Zheng, Min, 2019. "Is there still a weather anomaly? An investigation of stock and foreign exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 51-59.
    12. Ogden, Joseph P, 1990. "Turn-of-Month Evaluations of Liquid Profits and Stock Returns: A Common Explanation for the Monthly and January Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1259-1272, September.
    13. Arnold L. Redman & Herman Manakyan & Kartono Liano, 1997. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 19-28.
    14. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    15. Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "The Turn of the Year in Money Markets: Tests of the Risk-Shifting Window Dressing and Preferred Habitat Hypotheses," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1337-1364, July.
    16. Ziemba, William T, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year: Discussion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 717-719, July.
    17. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    18. Christopher K. Ma & Paul R. Goebel, 1991. "On the Seasonalities of Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 19-38.
    19. Verdickt, Gertjan, 2020. "Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Wiley & Leonard Zumpano, 2009. "Institutional Investment and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 180-201, August.
    2. Stefanescu Razvan & Dumitriu Ramona, 2020. "Changes of the Time Intervals Specific to Calendar Anomalies: the Case of TOQ Effect on Bucharest Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 264-273.
    3. Benjamin Munyan, 2015. "Regulatory Arbitrage in the Repo Market," Working Papers 15-22, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    4. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2011. "Turn - of - the - month effect on the Bucharest stock exchange," MPRA Paper 36566, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2012.
    5. Vasileiou, Evangelos, 2018. "Is the turn of the month effect an “abnormal normality”? Controversial findings, new patterns and…hidden signs(?)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 153-175.
    6. Muhammad Sarmad Irtiza & Shahbaz Khan & Nida Baig & Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi & Ilyas Ahmad, 2021. "The turn-of-the-month effect in Pakistani stock market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Mehmet Akbulut & Su Han Chan & Mariya Letdin, 2015. "Calendar Anomalies: Do REITs Behave Like Stocks?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 177-215.
    8. Jalonen, Einari & Vähämaa, Sami & Äijö, Janne, 2010. "Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 75-81, January.
    9. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in commodity markets for natural resources: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Reis, Julius & Grebe, Leonard & Schiereck, D. & Hennig, Kerstin, 2023. "Is There Still a Day-of-the-Week Effect in the Real Estate Sector?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 141998, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    12. Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan & Naheed Rabbani, 2019. "Market Conditions and Calendar Anomalies in Japanese Stock Returns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(2), pages 187-209, June.
    13. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Carlos Francisco Alves & Duarte André de Castro Reis, 2018. "Evidence of Idiosyncratic Seasonality in ETFs Performance," FEP Working Papers 603, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Lee, Yu Kyung & Kim, Ryumi, 2022. "The turn-of-the-month effect and trading of types of investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed & Zhu, Hui, 2009. "The dynamics of the Monday effect in international stock indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 125-133, June.
    17. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    18. Eleftherios Giovanis, 2014. "The Turn-of-the-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(3), pages 43-61, December.
    19. Baig, Ahmed & Winters, Drew B., 2018. "A preferred habitat for liquidity in term repos: Before, during and after the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2018. "The Turn of the Month Effect in Asia-Pacific Markets: New Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 214-226, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anomalous returns; turn-of-the-month effect; OLS; pooled regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:suvges:v:33:y:2023:i:3:p:86-100:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.