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An Econometric Analysis of Market Anomaly - Day of the Week Effect on a Small Emerging Market

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  • Julijana Angelovska

    ()
    (International Balkan University)

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    Abstract

    The research about the existence of seasonal behavior in return and volatility of Macedonian Stock Exchange is done. Under different model specifications the hypothesis if mean returns are significantly different in the five trading days is tested. The evidence of existence of predictable pattern or market inefficiency can be used for profitable market strategy or forecasting of the predictable movements in asset prices can provide investors with opportunities to generate abnormal returns. The results differ under different model specifications. While simple single ANOVA model and dummy variable regression using OLS methodology, could not find enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, or mean returns are not significantly different in the five trading days, the more advanced models like GARCH (1,1), EGARCH and modified M-GARCH (1,1) and M-EGARCH, found evidence about existence of a day of the week effect on Thursday.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences in its journal International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 314-322

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    Handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:3:y:2013:i:1:p:314-322

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    Web page: http://hrmars.com/index.php/pages/detail/Accounting-Finance-Journal

    Related research

    Keywords: Efficient market; market anomaly; day of the week effect; GARCH; EGARCH;

    References

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    1. Wang, Ko & Li, Yuming & Erickson, John, 1997. " A New Look at the Monday Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2171-86, December.
    2. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, . "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    7. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
    8. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "Patterns in Japanese Common Stock Returns: Day of the Week and Turn of the Year Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 261-272, June.
    9. Alexandros Leontitsis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2006. "Nonlinear forecast of financial time series through dynamical calendar correction," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 337-340, September.
    10. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, . "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    12. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. " The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-54, June.
    13. Nabeel Al-Loughani & David Chappell, 2001. "Modelling the day-of-the-week effect in the Kuwait Stock Exchange: a nonlinear GARCH representation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 353-359.
    14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    15. J. Andrew Coutts & Peter Hayes, 1999. "The weekend effect, the Stock Exchange Account and the Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index: 1987-1994," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 67-71.
    16. A.D. Clare & M.S.B. Ibrahim & S.H. Thomas, 1998. "The Impact of Settlement Procedures on Day-of-the-week Effects: Evidence from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3&4), pages 401-418.
    17. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. " A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-35, July.
    18. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. " New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-14, December.
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