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Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?

Author

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  • Wielechowski Michał

    (1 Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Czech Katarzyna

    (2 Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying k-means clustering, three country groups are distinguished, similar with regard to their energy intensity, energy dependence (including dependence on Russian gas), and household budgets’ exposure to energy prices. Based on the Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict as well as differences in the 2022 forecasts’ changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Wielechowski Michał & Czech Katarzyna, 2023. "Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 9(4), pages 74-95, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:9:y:2023:i:4:p:74-95:n:3
    DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roberto Aguilera, 2020. "Revisiting the role of natural gas as a transition fuel," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 73-80, July.
    2. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ; energy intensity; energy dependence; natural gas; Russian aggression against Ukraine; European Union member states; macroeconomic indicators; clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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