IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/uwp/landec/v97y2021i4p875-892.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Wendong Zhang
  • Sergio H. Lence
  • Todd Kuethe

Abstract

Opinion surveys are the dominant method for gauging U.S. farmland values. However, there is no systematic evaluation of how opinions are formulated and change over time. Using panel data of agricultural professionals from the Iowa Land Value Survey over 2005–2015, we investigate how surveyed experts update their farmland value estimates. We find that experts almost fully correct their prior “errors” in a single period. Experts’ opinions also incorporate most of the prevailing price innovations in one period. Our Bayesian estimation technique simultaneously addresses the unobservability and nonstationarity of prevailing farmland values and the Nickell bias in short dynamic panels.

Suggested Citation

  • Wendong Zhang & Sergio H. Lence & Todd Kuethe, 2021. "Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 97(4), pages 875-892.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:97:y:2021:i:4:p:875-892
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.97.4.080820-0124R
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://le.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/97/4/875
    Download Restriction: A subscripton is required to access pdf files. Pay per article is available.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oppedahl, David B., 2015. "Farmland Values and Credit Conditions," AgLetter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 2015(1968), May.
    2. Dhaene, Geert & Jochmans, Koen, 2016. "Likelihood Inference In An Autoregression With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 1178-1215, October.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1mc4dip81d9t8r0t57fe1h8lap is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Allison Borchers & Jennifer Ifft & Todd Kuethe, 2014. "Linking the Price of Agricultural Land to Use Values and Amenities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1307-1320.
    5. Stinn, Matthew & Duffy, Michael, 2012. "What is the Precision of Land Survey Values?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 36001, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Stinn, Matthew & Duffy, Michael D., 2012. "What is the Precision of Land Survey Values?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1-4.
    7. Zhang, Wendong & Duffy, Michael D., 2017. "Land Quality Perceptions in Expert Opinion Surveys: Evidence from Iowa," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2017.
    8. Wendong Zhang & Alejandro Plastina & Wendiam Sawadgo, 2018. "Iowa Farmland Ownership and Tenure Survey 1982-2017: A Thirty-five Year Perspective," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-wp580, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Tony Lancaster, 2002. "Orthogonal Parameters and Panel Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 647-666.
    10. Sergio H. Lence, 2001. "Farmland Prices in the Presence of Transaction Costs: A Cautionary Note," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 985-992.
    11. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    12. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    2. Chen, Le & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Aglasan, Serkan & Hagen, Stephen & Salas, William, 2022. "The Impact of No-Till Production on Agricultural Land Values in the US Midwest," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322445, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Le Chen & Roderick M. Rejesus & Serkan Aglasan & Stephen Hagen & William Salas, 2023. "The impact of no‐till on agricultural land values in the United States Midwest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(3), pages 760-783, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kruiniger, Hugo, 2018. "A further look at Modified ML estimation of the panel AR(1) model with fixed effects and arbitrary initial conditions," MPRA Paper 110375, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2021.
    2. Alvarez, Javier & Arellano, Manuel, 2022. "Robust likelihood estimation of dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 21-61.
    3. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    4. Maurice J.G. Bun & Martin A. Carree & Artūras Juodis, 2017. "On Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 463-494, August.
    5. Schumann, Martin & Severini, Thomas A. & Tripathi, Gautam, 2021. "Integrated likelihood based inference for nonlinear panel data models with unobserved effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 73-95.
    6. Dhaene, Geert & Sun, Yutao, 2021. "Second-order corrected likelihood for nonlinear panel models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 227-252.
    7. Artūras Juodis, 2018. "Rank based cointegration testing for dynamic panels with fixed T," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 349-389, September.
    8. Seung C. Ahn & Gareth M. Thomas, 2023. "Likelihood-based inference for dynamic panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2859-2909, June.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9mgp8l is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09ij4j0h0h1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9mgp8l is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m052g20qh is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dhaene, Geert & Jochmans, Koen, 2016. "Likelihood Inference In An Autoregression With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 1178-1215, October.
    14. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2018. "Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 816-836, September.
    15. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    16. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 171-201, January.
    17. Kordalska, Aleksandra & Olczyk, Magdalena, 2021. "Linkages between services and manufacturing as a new channel for GVC development: Evidence from CEE countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-137.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09ij4oge90i is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    20. Santos, Gervásio F., 2013. "Fuel demand in Brazil in a dynamic panel data approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-240.
    21. Jan F. Kiviet, 2005. "Judging Contending Estimators by Simulation: Tournaments in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-112/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Bao, Yong & Yu, Xuewen, 2023. "Indirect inference estimation of dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1027-1053.
    23. Chihwa Kao & Long Liu & Rui Sun, 2021. "A bias-corrected fixed effects estimator in the dynamic panel data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 205-225, January.
    24. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2019. "Applying panel vector autoregression to institutions, human capital, and output," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1633-1652, November.
    25. Kruiniger, Hugo, 2008. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference methods for the covariance stationary panel AR(1)/unit root model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 447-464, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:97:y:2021:i:4:p:875-892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://le.uwpress.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.