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Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing

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  • Derek Lemoine

    (University of Arizona)

Abstract

I report evidence that an anticipated strengthening of environmental policy increased emissions. I find that the breakdown of the U.S. Senate's 2010 climate effort generated positive excess returns in coal futures markets. This response appears to be driven by an increase in coal storage. The proposed legislation aimed to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions after 2013, but the legislative process itself may have increased emissions by over 12 million tons of carbon dioxide leading up to April 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Lemoine, 2017. "Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 499-513, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:99:y:2017:i:3:p:499-513
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle C. Meng, 2017. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 748-784, March.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Paul Collier & Anthony J. Venables, 2014. "Closing coal: economic and moral incentives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 492-512.
    4. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Konrad, Kai A. & Lommerud, Kjell Erik, 2021. "Effective climate policy needs non-combustion uses for hydrocarbons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Suphi Sen & Marie-Theres von Schickfus, 2017. "Will Assets be Stranded or Bailed Out? Expectations of Investors in the Face of Climate Policy," ifo Working Paper Series 238, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2021. "(Bio-)Fuel mandating and the green paradox," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Ana Espinola-Arredondo & Felix Munoz-Garcia & Dolores Garrido, 2023. "Measuring regulatory errors from environmental policy uncertainty," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 48-65, December.
    9. Fried, Stephie & Novan, Kevin & Peterman, William B., 2022. "Climate policy transition risk and the macroeconomy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    11. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2023. "Carbon pricing and emissions: Causal effects of Britain's carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Laura Nowzohour, 2021. "Can Adjustments Costs in Research Derail the Transition to Green Growth ?," CIES Research Paper series 67-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    13. Joëlle Noailly ; Laura Nowzohour; Matthias van den Heuvel, 2022. "Does Environmental Policy Uncertainty Hinder Investments Towards a Low-Carbon Economy?," CIES Research Paper series 74-2022, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2023. "Evaluating current effects of upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Evidence from China's futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    15. Najm, Sarah & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2020. "Does renewable energy substitute LNG international trade in the energy transition?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2023. "Tracking policy uncertainty under climate change," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Ferentinos, Konstantinos & Gibberd, Alex & Guin, Benjamin, 2023. "Stranded houses? The price effect of a minimum energy efficiency standard," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Espinola-Arredondo, Ana & Muñoz-García, Félix & Duah, Isaac, 2019. "Anticipatory effects of taxation in the commons: When do taxes work, and when do they fail?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Bruno, Ellen Marie & Hagerty, Nick, 2023. "Anticipatory Effects of Regulation in Open Access," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt58n467v5, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    20. Najm, Sarah, 2019. "The green paradox and budgetary institutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William B. Peterman, 2021. "The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Marie-Catherine Riekhof & Johannes Bröcker, 2017. "Does The Adverse Announcement Effect Of Climate Policy Matter? — A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-34, May.

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