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The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the Downtown Los Angeles Financial District

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  • Qisheng Pan
  • Harry Richardson
  • Peter Gordon
  • James Moore

Abstract

Abstract This paper summarizes a study on the economic impacts of a radiological bomb attack on a major office building in downtown Los Angeles financial district. A radiological bomb will generate effects within an extensive radiation plume that is divided into two zones with varying evacuation times: an Inner Zone with a 1-year evacuation and an Outer Zone with only a 1-month evacuation time. An up-to-date version of a Garin–Lowry-style regional input–output model called SCPM 2005 is employed to simulate household and firm relocation in three scenarios. The impact analysis focuses on business interruption effects only. Impact économique d'une attaque terroriste sur le quartier financier du centre de Los Angeles Résumé Cet article concerne une étude sur l'impact économique d'une attaque par bombe radiologique sur un immeuble de bureaux dans le quartier financier du centre de Los Angeles. Une bombe radiologique engendre des effets au cæur d'un vaste panache radioactif, qui est divisé en deux zones possédant des durées d’évacuation différentes. La durée d’évacuation est d'un an dans la zone interne, et d'un mois seulement dans la zone externe. Trois scénarios de délocalisation de ménages et d'entreprises sont simulés grâce à l'utilisation d'une version actuelle d'un modèle régional intrants-extrants de type Garin–Lowry, appelé SCPM 2005. L'analyse de l'impact se concentre uniquement sur les effets de l'interruption du commerce. El impacto económico de un ataque terrorista en el distrito financiero del centro de Los Ángeles Résumén Este trabajo resume un estudio sobre el impacto económico de un ataque de bomba radiológico en un importante edificio de oficinas en el distrito financiero del centro de Los Ángeles. Una bomba radiológica generará efectos dentro de una pluma radioactiva extensiva, dividida en dos zonas con diferentes tiempos de evacuación: una zona interna con un período de evacuación de un año y una zona externa con un período de evacuación de sólo un mes. Se emplea una versión actualizada de un modelo estilo Garin–Lowry, de entrada-salida regional llamado SCPM 2005, para simular la relocalización de viviendas y firmas en tres escenarios. El análisis del impacto sólo se enfoca en los efectos de la interrupción del

Suggested Citation

  • Qisheng Pan & Harry Richardson & Peter Gordon & James Moore, 2009. "The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the Downtown Los Angeles Financial District," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 213-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:4:y:2009:i:2:p:213-239
    DOI: 10.1080/17421770902834335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    2. J. Nassios & J.A. Giesecke, 2015. "The Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terrorism in the U.S.: A Reconciliation of CGE and Econometric Approaches," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-256, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke, 2018. "Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro‐Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 804-825, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic impacts; urban economics; transportation model; terrorist attacks; R11; R15; R41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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