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When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world

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  • Hendrik P. van Dalen
  • Kène Henkens

Abstract

When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals’ policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers.

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  • Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2021. "When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(2), pages 289-303, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:289-303
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986
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    1. Hendrik P. Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2021. "Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 551-567, July.
    2. Nick Parr, 2023. "An Alternative Perspective on the Changing Relationships between Fertility and Replacement Level in European Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(2), pages 255-278, June.
    3. Million Phiri & Liness Shasha & Emmanuel Musonda & Mikidadi Muhanga & Musonda Lemba, 2023. "Choice of desired family size among young women in Zambia: what matters?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 1-18, September.

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