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Hayek and Keynes: From a common critique of economic method to different theories of expectations

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  • Anna Carabelli
  • Nicolo De Vecchi

Abstract

The methodological positions of Hayek and Keynes contain striking similarities. Both authors opposed empiricist approaches to economics that assign priority to mere observation as the source of knowledge. Both emphasised intentionality, motivation and human agency. Notwithstanding this common ground, they had different conceptions of how beliefs are formed and had different explanations of thought and action in economics. Hayek grounded his explanation on an evolutionary theory of the mind, i.e. on psychological premises, whereas Keynes based his view of belief formation on probable reasoning, where probability is a logical concept. Starting from psychological premises Hayek maintained that individuals act rationally only by following rules. As a consequence, he considered conventional expectations to be the primary guide for agents in economic life. Keynes agreed that conventional expectations actually guide economic behaviour, but he maintained that they are justified only in situations of total ignorance. In conditions of limited knowledge, agents can base their action on reasonable expectations, independently of conventions. Moreover, agents—particularly those institutions responsible for economic policy—ought to shun conventional behaviour in order to counteract its negative social consequences. We argue that Keynes's theory of expectations is well grounded upon his theory of logical probability. Hence his advocacy of discretionary policy is rationally justified.

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  • Anna Carabelli & Nicolo De Vecchi, 2001. "Hayek and Keynes: From a common critique of economic method to different theories of expectations," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 269-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:13:y:2001:i:3:p:269-285
    DOI: 10.1080/09538250120055140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Carabelli, 2012. "A new methodological approach to economic theory: what I have learnt from 30 years of research on Keynes," Chapters, in: Jesper Jespersen & Mogens Ove Madsen (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory for Today, chapter 5, pages 79-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Niclas Berggren, 2009. "Choosing one’s own informal institutions: on Hayek’s critique of Keynes’s immoralism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 139-159, June.
    3. Miguel A. Durán, 2005. "The problems of the the Co-Ordination problem," ThE Papers 05/09, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    4. Pies, Ingo, 2013. "Theoretische Grundlagen demokratischer Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftspolitik: Der Beitrag von John Maynard Keynes," Discussion Papers 2013-16, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    5. Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes's Methodology and the Analysis of Economic Agent Behavior in a Complex World," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    6. Vanberg, Viktor J., 2005. "Market and state: the perspective of constitutional political economy," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 23-49, June.
    7. Sylvie Rivot, 2020. "Information and Expectations in Policy-Making: Friedman's Changing Approaches to Macroeconomic Dynamics," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-39, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    8. Győrffy, Dóra, 2012. "Intézményi bizalom és a döntések időhorizontja [Institutional confidence and the time line of decision-making]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 412-425.
    9. William Butos & Roger Koppl, 2004. "Carabelli & de Vecchi on Keynes and Hayek," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 239-247.
    10. Fiorillo Damiano, 2007. "Il capitale sociale nel pensiero di John Maynard Keynes," CESMEP Working Papers 200701, University of Turin.
    11. Nicolo De Vecchi, 2006. "Hayek and the General Theory," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 233-258.

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