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The forward pricing function of industrial metal futures -- evidence from cointegration and smooth transition regression analysis

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  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Robert Czudaj

Abstract

The prices of internationally traded metals have experienced wild swings and increased volatility in recent years. The relationship between spot and futures prices is an important topic in this context, as the current period's price of a futures contract should be an unbiased estimator of next period's spot price under the joint assumption of risk neutrality and rationality. Taking as a basis data from the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index, which uses metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and US exchanges, this study adopts nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze whether the forward spread is a leading indicator of future spot price movements. Our findings suggest that such a price discovery function can in most cases only be identified in periods of low volatility or small previous spreads. Moreover, the underlying dynamics are captured best by the use of a logistic transition function.

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  • Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "The forward pricing function of industrial metal futures -- evidence from cointegration and smooth transition regression analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 472-490, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:27:y:2013:i:4:p:472-490
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2012.736480
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Financialisation of natural resources & instability caused by risk transfer in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    3. Yahya, Muhammad & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Evaluation of cross-quantile dependence and causality between non-ferrous metals and clean energy indexes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0502 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven for Stocks? A Smooth Transition Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0502, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Spillovers, integration and causality in LME non-ferrous metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Dejan Živkov & Slavica Manić & Ivan Pavkov, 2022. "Nonlinear examination of the ‘Heat Wave’ and ‘Meteor Shower’ effects between spot and futures markets of the precious metals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 1109-1134, August.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.

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