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Single Stock Call Options as Lottery Tickets: Overpricing and Investor Sentiment

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  • Luiz Félix
  • Roman Kräussl
  • Philip Stork

Abstract

The authors investigate whether the overpricing of out-of-the money single stock calls can be explained by Tversky and Kahneman's [1992] cumulative prospect theory (CPT). They hypothesize that these options are expensive because investors overweight small probability events and overpay for positively skewed securities (i.e., lottery tickets). The authors find that overweighting of small probabilities embedded in the CPT explains the richness of out-of-the money single stock calls better than other utility functions. Nevertheless, overweighting of small probabilities events is less pronounced than suggested by the CPT, is strongly time varying, and most frequent in options of short maturity. The authors find that fluctuations in overweighting of small probabilities are largely explained by the sentiment factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2019. "Single Stock Call Options as Lottery Tickets: Overpricing and Investor Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:20:y:2019:i:4:p:385-407
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2018.1511792
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    Cited by:

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    2. Schneider, Julian & Oehler, Andreas, 2021. "Competition for visibility: When do (FX) signal providers employ lotteries?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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