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The Coercive Weight of the Past: Temporal Dependence and the Conflict-Repression Nexus in the Northern Ireland “Troubles”

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  • Christopher M. Sullivan
  • Cyanne E. Loyle
  • Christian Davenport

Abstract

After 40 years, we still know very little about how state repression influences political dissent. In fact, to date, every possible relationship, including no influence, has been found. We argue that part of the problem concerns the current practice of treating every repressive event as if it were substantively equivalent, differentiated only by scope (large/small) or type (violent/nonviolent). We advance existing work by arguing that the influence of repression is contingent on when it occurs within the temporal sequences of political conflict. Using new events data on the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland from 1968 to 1974, results show that when dissent has been decreasing in the recent past, repressive action inspires an increase in dissident action. When dissent has been increasing, however, repression has the opposite effect, decreasing challenging activity. These results provide important insights into resolving a recurrent puzzle within the conflict-repression nexus as well as understanding the interaction between government and dissident behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Sullivan & Cyanne E. Loyle & Christian Davenport, 2012. "The Coercive Weight of the Past: Temporal Dependence and the Conflict-Repression Nexus in the Northern Ireland “Troubles”," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 426-442, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:38:y:2012:i:4:p:426-442
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.697005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abouharb,M. Rodwan & Cingranelli,David, 2007. "Human Rights and Structural Adjustment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521676717.
    2. Abouharb,M. Rodwan & Cingranelli,David, 2007. "Human Rights and Structural Adjustment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521859332.
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    Cited by:

    1. Travis B. Curtice & Brandon Behlendorf, 2021. "Street-level Repression: Protest, Policing, and Dissent in Uganda," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(1), pages 166-194, January.
    2. Rory Truex, 2019. "Focal Points, Dissident Calendars, and Preemptive Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 1032-1052, April.
    3. Christopher Wiley Shay, 2023. "Swords into ploughshares? Why human rights abuses persist after resistance campaigns," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 141-156, January.
    4. Philip Hultquist, 2017. "Is collective repression an effective counterinsurgency technique? Unpacking the cyclical relationship between repression and civil conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(5), pages 507-525, September.
    5. Laia Balcells & Lesley-Ann Daniels & Abel Escrib�-Folch, 2014. "The determinants of low-intensity intergroup violence. The case of Northern Ireland," HiCN Working Papers 190, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Solveig Hillesund, 2022. "To fight or demonstrate? Micro foundations of inequality and conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(2), pages 166-190, March.
    7. Cullen S. Hendrix & Idean Salehyan, 2017. "A House Divided," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1653-1681, September.
    8. Sam R Bell & Amanda Murdie, 2018. "The apparatus for violence: Repression, violent protest, and civil war in a cross-national framework," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 336-354, July.

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