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Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

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  • Trude Midtgaard
  • Krishna Vadlamannati
  • Indra Soysa

Abstract

The global economic downturn has heightened concerns about intervention by global financial institutions and political stability. One prominently-published article purports to show that signing on to an IMF structural adjustment program (SAP) increases the risk of civil war, Hartzell et al. (International Organization 64:339–56, 2010 ). The authors claim that IMF SAPs push liberalization, which hurts people badly enough that they foment civil war. We advance the debate by critically examining their theoretical and empirical evidence, particularly questioning their crucial assumptions about the impact of IMF programs on the economic environment in terms of who actually wins and loses from liberalization and who might be in a position to rebel. Using their data, we find that signing on to an IMF program predicts the onset of a civil war negatively if one uses a lower threshold of 25 deaths when defining civil war. These results suggest that the operationalization of the IMF variable as well as the use of large-scale civil war (1,000 deaths and above) simply capture the effect of ongoing conflict rather than the effects of liberalization. After extending the time period under study and making only minor changes to operationalization, we find that at no time does IMF involvement successfully predict the onset of a civil war. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Trude Midtgaard & Krishna Vadlamannati & Indra Soysa, 2014. "Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:9:y:2014:i:1:p:107-124
    DOI: 10.1007/s11558-013-9167-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Reinsberg & Daniel O Shaw & Louis Bujnoch, 2024. "Revisiting the security–development nexus: Human security and the effects of IMF adjustment programmes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(1), pages 72-95, January.
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    3. Dutta, Nabamita & Williamson, Claudia R., 2016. "Aiding economic freedom: Exploring the role of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 24-38.
    4. Stephen C. Nelson & Geoffrey P. R. Wallace, 2017. "Are IMF lending programs good or bad for democracy?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 523-558, December.
    5. Axel Dreher & Vera Z Eichenauer & Kai Gehring, 2018. "Geopolitics, Aid, and Growth: The Impact of UN Security Council Membership on the Effectiveness of Aid," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(2), pages 268-286.

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