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Foreign Exchange Intervention by the Bank of Japan: Bayesian Analysis Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model

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Author Info

  • Michael Smith
  • Andrew Pitts

Abstract

A bivariate stochastic volatility model is employed to measure the effect of intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on daily returns and volume in the USD/YEN foreign exchange market. Missing observations are accounted for, and a data-based Wishart prior for the precision matrix of the errors to the transition equation that is in line with the likelihood is suggested. Empirical results suggest there is strong conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean-corrected volume measure, as well as contemporaneous correlation in the errors to both the observation and transition equations. A threshold model is used for the BOJ reaction function, which is estimated jointly with the bivariate stochastic volatility model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. This accounts for endogeneity between volatility in the market and the BOJ reaction function, something that has hindered much previous empirical analysis in the literature on central bank intervention. The empirical results suggest there was a shift in behavior by the BOJ, with a movement away from a policy of market stabilization and toward a role of support for domestic monetary policy objectives. Throughout, we observe “leaning against the wind” behavior, something that is a feature of most previous empirical analysis of central bank intervention. A comparison with a bivariate EGARCH model suggests that the bivariate stochastic volatility model produces estimates that better capture spikes in in-sample volatility. This is important in improving estimates of a central bank reaction function because it is at these periods of high daily volatility that central banks more frequently intervene.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07474930600712897
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2-3 ()
Pages: 425-451

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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:25:y:2006:i:2-3:p:425-451

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Related research

Keywords: Central bank intervention; Foreign exchange volume; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Missing observations; Multivariate stochastic volatility; Threshold model;

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Cited by:
  1. Tsionas, Mike, 2012. "Simple techniques for likelihood analysis of univariate and multivariate stable distributions: with extensions to multivariate stochastic volatility and dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 40966, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Aug 2012.
  2. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-488, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Jacek Osiewalski & Anna Pajor, 2009. "Bayesian Analysis for Hybrid MSF-SBEKK Models of Multivariate Volatility," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 1(2), pages 179-202, November.
  4. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility (Revised in May 2007, Handbook of Financial Time Series (Published in "Handbook of Financial Time Series" (eds T.G. Andersen, R.A. Davis, Jens-Peter Kreiss," CARF F-Series CARF-F-094, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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