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Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

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  • Rob Vos
  • Niek De Jong
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    Abstract

    Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 211-232

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:15:y:2003:i:2:p:211-232

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    Related research

    Keywords: Trade Liberalization; Poverty; Inequality; Cge Modelling; Social Accounting Matrix; Microsimulations; Ecuador;

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    Cited by:
    1. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2012:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125105, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Boccanfuso, Dorothee & Coulibaly, Massa & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Savard, Luc, 2013. "Macroeconomic and distributional impacts of jatropha-based biodiesel in Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6500, The World Bank.
    4. Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004367, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    5. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    6. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2007. "Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution," Cahiers de recherche 07-12, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
    7. World Bank, 2004. "Ecuador : Poverty Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14593, The World Bank.
    8. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.
    9. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 2727-2750, June.
    10. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2014. "Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82.

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