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Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: a CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

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Author Info
Rob Vos
Niek De Jong
Abstract

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

Volume (Year): 15 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 211-232
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Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:15:y:2003:i:2:p:211-232

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Related research
Keywords: Trade Liberalization; Poverty; Inequality; Cge Modelling; Social Accounting Matrix; Microsimulations; Ecuador;

Cited by:
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  1. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2007. "Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution," Cahiers de recherche 07-12, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty Impacts of Increased Openness and Fiscal Policies in a Dollarized economy: A CGE-Micro Approach for Ecuador," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004367, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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