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The Peace Dividend Effect Of Turkish Convergence To The Eu: A Multi-Region Dynamic Cge Model Analysis For Greece And Turkey

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  • Durmus Ozdemir
  • Ali Bayar

Abstract

This paper examines the peace dividend effect of Turkish convergence to EU membership. By employing a multi-region dynamic CGE model, we examine the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey becomes an EU member. The model allows us to analyse several scenarios that imply varying amounts of reduction of the military expenditure/GDP ratios. On the one hand, this change will cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures, while on the other hand, reallocation of the reduced expenditure on (i) education, (ii) tax decrease, and (iii) infrastructure, should have a huge growth impact. Our dynamic CGE simulation experiments emphasize the economic gain for all parties involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Durmus Ozdemir & Ali Bayar, 2009. "The Peace Dividend Effect Of Turkish Convergence To The Eu: A Multi-Region Dynamic Cge Model Analysis For Greece And Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 69-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:69-78
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690701833217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    2. Jurgen Brauer, 2002. "Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 85-107.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hee-Won Yang & Chan-Young Hong & Seong-Mun Jeong & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2012. "The military Expenditure and Economic Growth in the case of the South Korea : The dynamic Computational Equilibrium model in an Endogeneous Growth Perspective," EcoMod2012 4264, EcoMod.
    2. Giorgio d'Agostino & Luca Pieroni & J Paul Dunne, 2010. "Assessing the Effects of Military Expenditure on Growth," Working Papers 1012, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    4. Yang, Heewon & Hong, Chanyoung & Jung, Sungmoon & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2015. "Arms or butter: The economic effect of an increase in military expenditure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 596-615.
    5. Wen-Min Lu & Qian Long Kweh & Kang-Fu Chen, 2021. "How do peace dividends bring about human development and productivity?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 435-452, November.

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