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Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty

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  • Rodney Fort
  • Young H. Lee

Abstract

We extend the literature on unbiased estimators of sports league outcomes to include outcome uncertainty. While competitive balance and outcome uncertainty are related, generally, they are not the same thing. We show that an extant unbiased estimator of competitive balance, and our new unbiased estimator of outcome uncertainty, bear this out. The impacts on both competitive balance and outcome uncertainty, moving from a balanced to an unbalanced schedule, are demonstrated via numerical analysis. Finally, the unbiased estimators are employed to test the implications of our numerical analysis on the move by the Scottish Professional Football League to an unbalanced schedule. Results conform to our simulations.

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  • Rodney Fort & Young H. Lee, 2020. "Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(51), pages 5629-5638, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:51:p:5629-5638
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1770191
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    1. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2019. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 479-508, May.
    2. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    3. Lee Young Hoon & Kim Yongdai & Kim Sara, 2019. "Competitive balance with unbalanced schedules," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 239-260, September.
    4. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    7. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2008. "Unbalanced Schedules And The Estimation Of Competitive Balance In The Scottish Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 488-508, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayley Jang & Doyoung Kim & Young Hoon Lee, 2023. "Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis: Theoretical Development and Empirical Evaluation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(3), pages 271-291, May.
    2. Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 639-663, June.
    3. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills & Younghoon Lee, 2022. "Moments of Competitive Balance in Major League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 329-354, April.
    4. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2024. "The Effect of League Design on Club Revenues in the Scottish Premier League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28, January.

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