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Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues

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  • Young Hoon Lee

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)

  • Rodney Fort

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

This paper offers a model of the impact of division play on outcome uncertainty (OU) holding the level of competitive balance (CB) constant, that is, OU/CB. Previous work has focused almost entirely on CB. The model is based on numerical analysis to demonstrate the impacts of league transition to division play on OU/CB. Marginal effects of schedule imbalance, division strength, and the number of divisions on OU/CB are determined using regression on the numerical anlaysis results. Fitted vlaues of OU/CB from applying the estimated model coefficients to actual MLB data, as that league moved from no divisions through episodes of 2 and 3 divisions are compared to estimates of OU/CB on the same data using now well-established unbiased estimators of both OU and CB. The results are quite close, suggesting the model provides important insights for league policy makers and outside analysts about the neglected issue of league policy impacts on OU and, more specifically, how they happen as a result of schedule imbalance and division strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2022. "Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues," Working Papers 2204, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    • Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2019. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 479-508, May.
    2. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    3. Lee Young Hoon & Kim Yongdai & Kim Sara, 2019. "Competitive balance with unbalanced schedules," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 239-260, September.
    4. Rodney Fort & Young H. Lee, 2020. "Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(51), pages 5629-5638, November.
    5. Rodney Fort, 2005. "The Golden Anniversary of “The Baseball Players’ Labor Marketâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(4), pages 347-358, November.
    6. Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2005. "Structural Change in MLB Competitive Balance: The Depression, Team Location, and Integration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 158-169, January.
    7. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2008. "Unbalanced Schedules And The Estimation Of Competitive Balance In The Scottish Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 488-508, September.
    8. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2015. "Measurement of Competitive Balance in Conference and Divisional Tournament Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 3-25, January.
    9. Hayley Jang & Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2019. "Winning In Professional Team Sports: Historical Moments," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 103-120, January.
    10. Rodney Fort & Joel Maxcy, 2003. "“Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introductionâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 154-160, May.
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