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Exchange--rate volatility and US--Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect?

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  • Mohsen Bahmani--Oskooee
  • Scott W. Hegerty
  • Jia Xu

Abstract

In an effort to better understand the determinants of trade flows worldwide, researchers have recently incorporated external volatility (in addition to that of the partners' bilateral exchange rate) into their models. The so--called 'third country' effect is present if adding this term changes the bilateral volatility estimates that are found when external volatility is omitted. This study examines US exports to Hong Kong for 143 industries, and imports from Hong Kong for 110 industries, and finds two key results. First, expected inflation due to Hong Kong's dollar peg leads to increased US exports in a large number of industries. Second, comparing our results with those of a previous study shows strong evidence of a 'third country' effect, especially for US imports. Nonparametric tests suggest that these effects differ by sector: for both exports and imports. Manufacturing industries that enjoy a large trade share are less likely to experience this effect once external volatility is incorporated into the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani--Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Jia Xu, 2013. "Exchange--rate volatility and US--Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2629-2651, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:18:p:2629-2651
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.654918
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    1. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    2. Kamal P. Upadhyaya & Franklin G. Mixon & Rabindra Bhandari, 2022. "Is there a J‐curve in China‐U.S. trade?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 61-67, January.
    3. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Misbah Nosheen & Javed Iqbal, 2017. "Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan-U.S. Trade at Commodity Level," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 105-129, March.
    5. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Hamat Che Abdul Fatah, 2016. "The Effects of Currency Depreciation on Industry Trade Flows between Malaysia and China," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 181-206, May.
    7. Baek, Jungho, 2014. "Exchange rate effects on Korea–U.S. bilateral trade: A new look," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 214-221.
    8. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and India–US commodity trade: evidence of the third country effect," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 359-398, September.

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