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The efficiency of exotic wagers in racetrack betting

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  • Marshall Gramm
  • C. Nicholas McKinney
  • Douglas Owens

Abstract

Many empirical studies have found the existence of a bias where the general public overestimates low probability events. This phenomenon has been termed the favourite-longshot bias and has been much studied in betting markets. This article looks at efficiency in multihorse 'exotic' wagers using 11 194 races run at 35 U.S. racetracks. We find the standard favourite-longshot in exacta wagers (involves picking the first two finishers in order). Results are unclear for trifecta wagers (picking the first three finishers in order).

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Gramm & C. Nicholas McKinney & Douglas Owens, 2008. "The efficiency of exotic wagers in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 89-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:89-97
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701466085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Russell Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385.
    2. Marshall Gramm & Douglas H. Owens, 2006. "Efficiency in Pari-Mutuel Betting Markets across Wagering Pools in the Simulcast Era," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 926-937, April.
    3. Victor S. Y. Lo & John Bacon-Shone & Kelly Busche, 1995. "The Application of Ranking Probability Models to Racetrack Betting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1048-1059, June.
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    6. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 1998. "Do betting costs explain betting biases?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 333-335.
    7. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1998. "Why are some favourite-longshot biases positive and others negative?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1505-1510.
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    9. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1979. "Some Evidence of the Efficiency of a Speculative Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 387-392, March.
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