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The British gambler's fallacy

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  • George Papachristou

Abstract

People facing choices under uncertainty, and gamblers in particular, are often subject to statistical fallacies. This paper explores the hypothesis that if lotto players were subject to the 'gambler's fallacy', predictable fluctuations in the number of jackpots would occur. Evidence, based on a Poisson regression model in which the number of winning bets is conditional on the history of draws, indicates that number selection in the UK is only marginally affected by the history of draws.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
Pages: 2073-2077

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:18:p:2073-2077

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  1. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  2. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
  3. Patrick Roger & Marie-Helene Broihanne, 2007. "Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 645-662.
  4. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8203, CEPREMAP.
  5. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1991. "The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," NBER Working Papers 3769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jullien, Bruno & Salanié, Bernard, 2005. "Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors," IDEI Working Papers 178, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  3. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
  4. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.

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