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Unit roots versus segmented trends in developing country output series

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  • Matthias Lutz

Abstract

This paper examines the null hypothesis that output series contain a unit root against the alternative of a segmented trend in a representative sample of 31 developing countries. Nearly two-thirds of the countries reject the unit root hypothesis at least once in favour of a segmented trend representation. A large majority of endogenously determined structural breaks occur around the time of the first or the second oil price shock, and are of negative sign.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Lutz, 1999. "Unit roots versus segmented trends in developing country output series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 181-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:3:p:181-184
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599353591
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    3. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1994. "The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About An Old Stylized Fact," CEPR Discussion Papers 965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    6. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    7. Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1994. "The Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output: Some Additional International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 23-33, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shari Spiegel, 2007. "Macroeconomics and Growth Policies," Policy Notes 1, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    3. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.

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