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Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI

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  • Laurent Ferrara

Abstract

Opinion surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. The aim of this article is to propose a procedure to nowcast in real-time the fluctuations of the industrial production indices (IPI) for the aggregated euro area, by incorporating the information contained in the industrial opinion surveys. We present a pooling procedure, each nowcasted value stemming from a calibration model. The confidence intervals for IPI nowcasts are computed by bootstrap.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850500425998&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 115-120

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:115-120

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  1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00277379 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00275769 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00283710 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2012. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-19, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Ferrara, L. & Guégan, D., 2008. "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Working papers 224, Banque de France.
  6. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00283710 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:29:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS

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