IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spt/admaec/v8y2018i4f8_4_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear Effect of Business Cycle on Lottery Sales Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Po-Chin Wu
  • Hsiao
  • I-Chung
  • Tsai
  • Meng-Hua

Abstract

This paper constructs a panel smooth transition autoregression model to evaluate the impact of the U. S. business cycle on the stability of lottery sales. We find that the impact is nonlinear and time-varying, depending on the level of the leading indicator. The persistence of lottery sales locates between 0.7779 and 0.8539, implying that current lottery sales are influenced by about 15%-23% of current disturbance, and the stability of the lottery sales is relatively high. An increase in the leading indicator would lead to a higher persistence of lottery sales and then more stable lottery sales in the next period. JEL classification numbers: C23, L83, E32Keywords: Sales persistence, stability of lottery sales, panel smooth transition autoregression (PSTAR) model, lagged leading indicator

Suggested Citation

  • Po-Chin Wu & Hsiao & I-Chung & Tsai & Meng-Hua, 2018. "Nonlinear Effect of Business Cycle on Lottery Sales Stability," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:admaec:v:8:y:2018:i:4:f:8_4_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/AMAE%2fVol%208_4_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Omay, Tolga, 2014. "Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 184-190.
    4. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    5. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    7. Andrew Worthington & Kerry Brown & Mary Crawford & David Pickernell, 2007. "Gambling participation in Australia: findings from the national Household Expenditure Survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 209-221, June.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8180 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cheng, Che-Hui & Wu, Po-Chin, 2013. "Nonlinear earnings persistence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 156-168.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    11. Mikesell, John L., 1994. "State Lottery Sales and Economic Activity," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(1), pages 165-171, March.
    12. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    13. Cletus C. Coughlin & Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "Income and Lottery Sales," Public Finance Review, , vol. 37(4), pages 447-469, July.
    14. Dichev, Ilia D. & Tang, Vicki Wei, 2009. "Earnings volatility and earnings predictability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1-2), pages 160-181, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Kou-Bau Wang, 2017. "Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 581-592, January.
    2. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.
    3. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    4. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    5. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Chen, Che-Ying, 2016. "Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 154-171.
    6. Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    7. Ahamada, Ibrahim & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2011. "How does financial development influence the impact of remittances on growth volatility?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2748-2760.
    8. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    9. Jian Chai & Ting Liang & Xiaoyang Zhou & Yunxiao Ye & Limin Xing & Kin Keung Lai, 2016. "Natural Gas Consumption of Emerging Economies in the Industrialization Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Zhai, Rui-Xiang, 2018. "Nonlinear impacts of operating risk and demand management policy on banks’ performance: The role of leading indicator," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 40-53.
    11. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2013. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for water use? A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 518-527.
    12. Tolga Omay & Reneé Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Inflation–growth nexus: evidence from a pooled CCE multiple-regime panel smooth transition model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 913-944, May.
    13. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    14. Shiao-Yen Liu & Po-Chin Wu & Tsai-Yuan Huang, 2018. "Nonlinear Causality between Education and Health: the Role of Human Development Index," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 761-777, September.
    15. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    16. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    17. Xiaosheng Li & Xia Yan & Qingxian An & Ke Chen & Zhen Shen, 2016. "The coordination between China’s economic growth and environmental emission from the Environmental Kuznets Curve viewpoint," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 233-252, August.
    18. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung D., 2016. "The role of savings rate in exchange rate and trade imbalance nexus: Cross-countries evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1017-1025.
    19. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Ming-Fang Yang, 2017. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Role of National Debt," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu, 2017. "Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 568-584, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sales persistence; stability of lottery sales; panel smooth transition autoregression (pstar) model; lagged leading indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:admaec:v:8:y:2018:i:4:f:8_4_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.