IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i6d10.1007_s11269-022-03317-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System

Author

Listed:
  • Mert Can Gunacti

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Gulay Onusluel Gul

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Cem P. Cetinkaya

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Ali Gul

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Filiz Barbaros

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

Abstract

Persistent pressures that relate to nonstationary climate variations and land use/cover changes (LULCC) keep affecting water resources and their associated environmental services with increasing impact trends worldwide. Lake Marmara, located in Gediz River Basin in Western Turkey, is among the environmentally degraded water resources while officially announced as a priority wetland due to historical habitats and ecosystem functions. The region is remarkably under threat, especially after the construction of a reservoir on upstream reach that feeds the lake and the combined impacts of both climate and LULCC. These issues restrict local communities' access to fundamental ecosystem services for their survivability. The study investigates the effects of LULCC in the example of Lake Marmara in an environmental scope and provides water balance modelling that is utilized to help examine hydrologic conditions of the lake under climate change. The study evaluates future hydrologic conditions with RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, while combining future LULCC and water demand projections. These above mentioned various pressures are incorporated into modelling scenarios to evaluate the state of the lake for the year of 2050 under different circumstances. The study revealed that in every scenario analysed, the lake dries out and is incapable of maintaining the required water amount to sustain its wildlife and ecosystem. As a result, some new water allocation policies and strategies are essential for the survival of the Lake Marmara System.

Suggested Citation

  • Mert Can Gunacti & Gulay Onusluel Gul & Cem P. Cetinkaya & Ali Gul & Filiz Barbaros, 2023. "Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2643-2656, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03317-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cem P. Cetinkaya & Mert Can Gunacti, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Water Allocation Scenarios in a Water Scarce Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2867-2884, June.
    2. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    4. Muhammad Hadi Saputra & Han Soo Lee, 2019. "Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatima Yahya & Antoine El Samrani & Mohamad Khalil & Alaa El-Din Abdin & Rasha El-Kholy & Mohamed Embaby & Mohab Negm & Dirk De Ketelaere & Anna Spiteri & Eleanna Pana & Vasileios Takavakoglou, 2023. "Decentralized Wetland-Aquaponics Addressing Environmental Degradation and Food Security Challenges in Disadvantaged Rural Areas: A Nature-Based Solution Driven by Mediterranean Living Labs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-16, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    3. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Américo S. Ribeiro & Maite deCastro & Liliana Rusu & Mariana Bernardino & João M. Dias & Moncho Gomez-Gesteira, 2020. "Evaluating the Future Efficiency of Wave Energy Converters along the NW Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    8. Miftakhova, Alena & Judd, Kenneth L. & Lontzek, Thomas S. & Schmedders, Karl, 2020. "Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 67-80.
    9. Pedro Pérez-Cutillas & Pedro Baños Páez & Isabel Banos-González, 2020. "Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    12. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 137-146.
    13. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    14. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    15. Carina Almeida & Tiago B. Ramos & João Sobrinho & Ramiro Neves & Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2019. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    17. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    18. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    19. Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    20. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3664, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03317-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.