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Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mengjie Yang

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Kai Yang

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Yue Che

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Shiqiang Lu

    (Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences)

  • Fengyun Sun

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Ying Chen

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Mengting Li

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

Abstract

Accurately simulating the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different decision-makers (DMs) is essential for identifying solutions to transboundary water conflicts. The purpose of this study is to present a dynamic evolutionary analysis model for simulating the behavior of different water users and solving the problem of transboundary water conflicts. To accomplish this goal, a revenue function, which can objectively evaluate the relative preferences of different DMs in water conflicts, was constructed to improve the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) model. A demonstration area in the Yangtze River Delta on ecologically friendly development (DAYRD) in China is applied to demonstrate the applicability of the improved method. The results show that the improved GMCR model based on the revenue function can accurately simulate the dynamic evolution of transboundary water conflicts and avoid the influence of subjective factors of researchers or experts in the traditional method. Additionally, the results indicated that water conflicts in the DAYRD can be transformed from the status quo (conflict) to the target state (cooperation) by effectively controlling the intensity of third-party intervention. These findings provide useful insights for the resolution of transboundary water conflicts and enhance our understanding of the role of third parties in transforming conflict into cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengjie Yang & Kai Yang & Yue Che & Shiqiang Lu & Fengyun Sun & Ying Chen & Mengting Li, 2021. "Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3321-3338, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02895-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02895-3
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