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Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Hui

    (University of California-Davis)

  • Jay Lund

    (University of California-Davis)

  • Jianshi Zhao

    (Tsinghua Univeristy)

  • Tongtiegang Zhao

    (Tsinghua Univeristy)

Abstract

Flood hedging reservoir operation is when a pre-storm release creates a small flood downstream to reduce the likelihood of a more damaging but uncertain larger flood in the future. Such pre-storm releases before a flood can increase reservoir storage capacity available to capture more severe flood flows, but also can immediately increase downstream flood damage and reduce stored water supply. This study develops an optimization model for pre-storm flood hedging releases and examines some necessary theoretical conditions for optimality, considering hydrologic uncertainty from flood forecasts and engineering uncertainty from flood failures. Theoretically, the ideal optimality condition for pre-storm flood hedging releases is where the current marginal damage from the hedging release equals the future expected marginal damage from storm releases. Additional water supply losses due to pre-storm releases tend to reduce pre-storm flood hedging releases. The overall flood damage cost to be minimized must be a convex function of pre-storm hedging releases for flood hedging to be optimal. Such convexity is determined by the overall flood risk together with the probability distribution of storm forecasts. Increasing the convexity of the failure probability function can induce more pre-storm hedging release. Categorized by flood risk likelihood downstream, forecasted storms that are large, but not yet overwhelming flood management systems, drive optimal flood hedging operation. A wide range of near-optimal hedging releases is observed in numerical examples, providing options for more rational water resources management decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Hui & Jay Lund & Jianshi Zhao & Tongtiegang Zhao, 2016. "Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5113-5129, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1472-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1472-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
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    3. J. Shiau & H. Lee, 2005. "Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(2), pages 111-132, April.
    4. Hui Wang & Junguo Liu, 2013. "Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1427-1438, March.
    5. Fabian Thomas & Kathrin Knüppe, 2016. "From Flood Protection to Flood Risk Management: Insights from the Rhine River in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2785-2800, June.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bin Xu & Xin Huang & Ping-an Zhong & Yenan Wu, 2020. "Two-Phase Risk Hedging Rules for Informing Conservation of Flood Resources in Reservoir Operation Considering Inflow Forecast Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2731-2752, July.
    4. Wen-jing Niu & Zhong-kai Feng & Yu-rong Li & Shuai Liu, 2021. "Cooperation Search Algorithm for Power Generation Production Operation Optimization of Cascade Hydropower Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2465-2485, June.
    5. Wenhua Wan & Jianshi Zhao & Jiabiao Wang, 2019. "Revisiting Water Supply Rule Curves with Hedging Theory for Climate Change Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Bin Xu & Ping-an Zhong & Yenan Wu & Fangming Fu & Yuting Chen & Yunfa Zhao, 2017. "A Multiobjective Stochastic Programming Model for Hydropower Hedging Operations under Inexact Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4649-4667, November.

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