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An Optimization-Simulation Approach for Groundwater Abstraction under Recharge Uncertainty

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  • Slim Zekri
  • Chefi Triki
  • Ali Al-Maktoumi
  • Mohammad Bazargan-Lari

Abstract

Droughts and climate variability cause uncertainties on water supply especially in arid regions and coastal aquifers’ over-exploitation causes seawater intrusion. Since the rate and extent of aquifer recharge is often very uncertain, determining the optimal groundwater abstraction is a challenging task. In this paper a framework is proposed for estimating the optimal abstraction of groundwater for urban supply under uncertainty and under complex conditions of water table fluctuations and seawater intrusion. It is based on a combination of several models: (i) a Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) to incorporate the uncertainties in groundwater recharge, (ii) a numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW to simulate the effects of abstractions on the water table fluctuations and seawater intrusion and (iii) a multi-objective optimization model to generate the set of Pareto optimal solutions for each recharging scenario. Maximizing the benefit to the water utility, minimizing the average groundwater table level fluctuations and minimizing the seawater intrusion are the objectives of the model. A fast multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to obtain the Pareto efficient solutions for each recharging scenario. Compromise programming (CP) is then used to select the closest solutions to the ideal. Finally, the amount of optimal reliable groundwater abstraction is estimated using a cumulative distribution function. The proposed methodology is applied to a coastal aquifer in the western part of Muscat metropolitan area, Oman. The results have shown that annual groundwater abstraction volume may range from 12.7 to 18.8 Mm 3 compared to 6.8 Mm 3 currently pumped. This would result in an economic benefit of $10.5 million to $15.4 million/year. On the other hand the aquifer’s maximum annual mean drawdown would range from 0.7 to 0.9 m. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Slim Zekri & Chefi Triki & Ali Al-Maktoumi & Mohammad Bazargan-Lari, 2015. "An Optimization-Simulation Approach for Groundwater Abstraction under Recharge Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3681-3695, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:10:p:3681-3695
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1023-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zekri, Slim, 2008. "Using economic incentives and regulations to reduce seawater intrusion in the Batinah coastal area of Oman," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 243-252, March.
    2. Farhang Daneshmand & Akbar Karimi & Mohammad Nikoo & Mohammad Bazargan-Lari & Jan Adamowski, 2014. "Mitigating Socio-Economic-Environmental Impacts During Drought Periods by Optimizing the Conjunctive Management of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1517-1529, April.
    3. J Sreekanth & Bithin Datta, 2014. "Stochastic and Robust Multi-Objective Optimal Management of Pumping from Coastal Aquifers Under Parameter Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 2005-2019, May.
    4. Akbar Javadi & Mohammed Hussain & Mohsen Sherif & Raziyeh Farmani, 2015. "Multi-objective Optimization of Different Management Scenarios to Control Seawater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1843-1857, April.
    5. Jialiang Cai & Thomas Taute & Michael Schneider, 2015. "Recommendations of Controlling Saltwater Intrusion in an Inland Aquifer for Drinking-Water Supply at a Certain Waterworks Site in Berlin (Germany)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2221-2232, May.
    6. Prante, Jeri L. & Ruskowitz, Jeffrey A. & Childress, Amy E. & Achilli, Andrea, 2014. "RO-PRO desalination: An integrated low-energy approach to seawater desalination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 104-114.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Xiayang & Sreekanth, J. & Cui, Tao & Pickett, Trevor & Xin, Pei, 2021. "Adaptative DNN emulator-enabled multi-objective optimization to manage aquifer−sea flux interactions in a regional coastal aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
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    4. Ali Al-Maktoumi & Mohammad Mahdi Rajabi & Slim Zekri & Chefi Triki, 2021. "A Probabilistic Multiperiod Simulation–Optimization Approach for Dynamic Coastal Aquifer Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3447-3462, September.
    5. Partha Majumder & T. I. Eldho, 2016. "A New Groundwater Management Model by Coupling Analytic Element Method and Reverse Particle Tracking with Cat Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1953-1972, April.
    6. M. L. Calvache & J. P. Sánchez-Úbeda & C. Duque & M. López-Chicano & B. Torre, 2016. "Evaluation of Analytical Methods to Study Aquifer Properties with Pumping Tests in Coastal Aquifers with Numerical Modelling (Motril-Salobreña Aquifer)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 559-575, January.
    7. Zekri, S., 2018. "Optimizing aquifer recharge and recovery using seasonal surplus desalinated water," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276946, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. M. Calvache & J. Sánchez-Úbeda & C. Duque & M. López-Chicano & B. Torre, 2016. "Evaluation of Analytical Methods to Study Aquifer Properties with Pumping Tests in Coastal Aquifers with Numerical Modelling (Motril-Salobreña Aquifer)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 559-575, January.
    9. Chefi Triki & Slim Zekri & Ali Al-Maktoumi & Mahsa Fallahnia, 2017. "An Artificial Intelligence Approach for the Stochastic Management of Coastal Aquifers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4925-4939, December.
    10. Mohammad Nikoo & Nafise Khorramshokouh & Shahryar Monghasemi, 2015. "Optimal Design of Detention Rockfill Dams Using a Simulation-Based Optimization Approach with Mixed Sediment in the Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5469-5488, December.
    11. Rick Hogeboom & Pieter Oel & Maarten Krol & Martijn Booij, 2015. "Modelling the Influence of Groundwater Abstractions on the Water Level of Lake Naivasha, Kenya Under Data-Scarce Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4447-4463, September.
    12. Zekri, Slim & Madani, Kaveh & Bazargan-Lari, Mohammad Reza & Kotagama, Hemesiri & Kalbus, Edda, 2017. "Feasibility of adopting smart water meters in aquifer management: An integrated hydro-economic analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 85-93.
    13. Seyed Naghibi & Hamid Pourghasemi, 2015. "A Comparative Assessment Between Three Machine Learning Models and Their Performance Comparison by Bivariate and Multivariate Statistical Methods in Groundwater Potential Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5217-5236, November.

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