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Water Conflict Risk due to Water Resource Availability and Unequal Distribution

Author

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  • N. Gunasekara
  • S. Kazama
  • D. Yamazaki
  • T. Oki

Abstract

The aim of this research is to support the assessment of countries’ risks of water conflicts in the immediate future, considering their vulnerability to changes in water availability. The risk of international water conflicts in the 5 years ahead of the year of analysis was estimated based on current water availability and its unequal distribution. Countries were classified by their vulnerability to reductions in water availability. In these vulnerability groups, the links of water availability (TRIP discharges per capita) and its unequal distribution with the risk of water conflicts were explored. The Gini Coefficient was employed to measure the inequalities. Inequalities showed statistically significant positive Logit links with the risk of water conflicts. The greatest risk for volatile conflicts exists for the Asian, South American and African countries, having the lowest water availability and the lowest economic capacity. Increasing inequalities increases the likelihood of water conflicts, suggesting enhancing access to water, to lower the likelihood of water conflicts. South American and Congo River basin countries are only at risk of low-level water conflicts, but have higher risks of conflict escalation, when inequality increases. The risk of North American and Asian water conflicts were modeled well, except in western Asia. The water conflict estimation provided only 11.9 % under-estimations and an accuracy of 54.1 %, globally. Inequalities in water can indicate the risk of water conflicts in the above regions. However, the risk of water conflicts between countries with higher economic capacity in the European continent showed no link with inequality. This study will facilitate the estimation of the risk of water conflicts resulting from climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • N. Gunasekara & S. Kazama & D. Yamazaki & T. Oki, 2014. "Water Conflict Risk due to Water Resource Availability and Unequal Distribution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 169-184, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:1:p:169-184
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0478-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shlomi Dinar, 2009. "Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-135, February.
    2. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
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    2. Lina Zhang & Xiaoling Zhang & Fengping Wu & Qinghua Pang, 2020. "Basin Initial Water Rights Allocation under Multiple Uncertainties: a Trade-off Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 955-988, February.
    3. Liu Wenxin & Zhang Yao & Xu Ruifan & Zhang Zhen, 2022. "Water shortage risk evaluation and its primary cause: Empirical evidence from rural China," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2), pages 179-199, May.
    4. Ligia de Oliveira Serrano & Rayssa Balieiro Ribeiro & Alisson Carraro Borges & Fernando Falco Pruski, 2020. "Low-Flow Seasonality and Effects on Water Availability throughout the River Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1289-1304, March.
    5. Xia Xu & Fengping Wu & Qianwen Yu & Xiangnan Chen & Yue Zhao, 2022. "Invisible Effect of Virtual Water Transfer on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers—Taking Ili River as a Case," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-25, July.
    6. James Stoutenborough & Arnold Vedlitz, 2014. "Public Attitudes Toward Water Management and Drought in the United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 697-714, February.
    7. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu & Weijun He & Liang Yuan, 2017. "Monotonic Bargaining Solution for Allocating Critically Scarce Transboundary Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2627-2644, July.
    8. Basem Shomar & Mohamed Darwish & Candace Rowell, 2014. "What does Integrated Water Resources Management from Local to Global Perspective Mean? Qatar as a Case Study, the Very Rich Country with No Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2781-2791, August.
    9. Elmira Valipour & Hamed Ketabchi & Reza Safari shali & Saeed Morid, 2023. "Equity, Social Welfare, and Economic Benefit Efficiency in the Optimal Allocation of Coastal Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990, June.
    10. Ricart Casadevall, Sandra, 2016. "Improving the management of water multi-functionality through stakeholder involvement in decision-making processes," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PA), pages 71-81.
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    12. Xia Xu & Fengping Wu & Qianwen Yu & Xiangnan Chen & Yue Zhao, 2022. "Analysis on Management Policies on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers Embedded with Virtual Water—Using Ili River as the Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, August.

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