IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/topjnl/v29y2021i1d10.1007_s11750-020-00575-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the value of natural gas underground storage in the Brazilian system via stochastic dual dynamic programming

Author

Listed:
  • Larissa de Oliveira Resende

    (PUC-Rio)

  • Davi Valladão

    (PUC-Rio)

  • Bernardo Vieira Bezerra

    (PSR Energy Consulting and Analytics (PSR))

  • Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo

    (National Electrical System Operator (ONS))

Abstract

The Brazilian natural gas sector is currently characterized by low maturity and dynamism of the market. The stochastic behavior of the demand for natural gas added to its associated market price volatility motivates the usage of underground storage to provide supply flexibility and protection against price fluctuations. However, the existing literature lacks a proper analytical tool to assess the benefits of underground natural gas storage (UNGS) activity. In this work, it is proposed a stochastic dynamic programming model for long/medium-term operation planning to determine the optimal gas supply and storage policies. A markovian model characterizes the uncertainty over the thermoelectric demand and market price. The proposed model is efficiently solved using the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm for the Brazilian case study considering realistic data for the actual gas network and electric power system. For an exogenous but meaningful choice of underground storage location and size, it is observed the operational and economic benefits of the provided storage flexibility. Finally, our numerical simulations show that the economic benefit for the system surpasses the operational and capital expenses for the storage infrastructure in depleted fields and salt caverns.

Suggested Citation

  • Larissa de Oliveira Resende & Davi Valladão & Bernardo Vieira Bezerra & Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo, 2021. "Assessing the value of natural gas underground storage in the Brazilian system via stochastic dual dynamic programming," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 106-124, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:topjnl:v:29:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11750-020-00575-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11750-020-00575-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11750-020-00575-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11750-020-00575-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alonso-Ayuso, Antonio & Escudero, Laureano F. & Guignard, Monique & Weintraub, Andres, 2018. "Risk management for forestry planning under uncertainty in demand and prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1051-1074.
    2. Shapiro, Alexander, 2011. "Analysis of stochastic dual dynamic programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 63-72, February.
    3. Rene Carmona & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Valuation of energy storage: an optimal switching approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 359-374.
    4. Guoming Lai & François Margot & Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach to Benchmark Practice-Based Heuristics for Natural Gas Storage Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 564-582, June.
    5. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    6. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    7. Philpott, A.B. & de Matos, V.L., 2012. "Dynamic sampling algorithms for multi-stage stochastic programs with risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 470-483.
    8. Almeida, José Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti & Fagundes De Almeida, Edmar Luiz & Torres, Ednildo Andrade & Freires, Francisco Gaudencio Mendonça, 2018. "Economic value of underground natural gas storage for the Brazilian power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 488-497.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. W. Ackooij & X. Warin, 2020. "On conditional cuts for stochastic dual dynamic programming," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(2), pages 173-199, June.
    2. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    3. Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.
    4. Lorenzo Reus & Rodolfo Prado, 2022. "Need to Meet Investment Goals? Track Synthetic Indexes with the SDDP Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 47-69, June.
    5. Jitka Dupačová & Václav Kozmík, 2017. "SDDP for multistage stochastic programs: preprocessing via scenario reduction," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 67-80, January.
    6. Vincent Guigues, 2014. "SDDP for some interstage dependent risk-averse problems and application to hydro-thermal planning," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 167-203, January.
    7. Powell, Warren B., 2019. "A unified framework for stochastic optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 795-821.
    8. Weini Zhang & Hamed Rahimian & Güzin Bayraksan, 2016. "Decomposition Algorithms for Risk-Averse Multistage Stochastic Programs with Application to Water Allocation under Uncertainty," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 385-404, August.
    9. Thuener Silva & Davi Valladão & Tito Homem-de-Mello, 2021. "A data-driven approach for a class of stochastic dynamic optimization problems," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 80(3), pages 687-729, December.
    10. de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2016. "Stochastic hydro-thermal scheduling optimization: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 382-395.
    11. Vitor Matos & Mauro Sierra & Erlon Finardi & Brigida Decker & André Milanezi, 2015. "Stochastic model for energy commercialisation of small hydro plants in the Brazilian energy market," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 111-127, January.
    12. Somayeh Moazeni & Warren B. Powell & Boris Defourny & Belgacem Bouzaiene-Ayari, 2017. "Parallel Nonstationary Direct Policy Search for Risk-Averse Stochastic Optimization," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 332-349, May.
    13. Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi & Lawson, André & Velloso, Alexandre, 2020. "Assessing the cost of the Hazard-Decision simplification in multistage stochastic hydrothermal scheduling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    14. Rudloff, Birgit & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi M., 2014. "Time consistency and risk averse dynamic decision models: Definition, interpretation and practical consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 743-750.
    15. A. B. Philpott & V. L. Matos & L. Kapelevich, 2018. "Distributionally robust SDDP," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 431-454, October.
    16. Singh, Bindeshwar & Mukherjee, V. & Tiwari, Prabhakar, 2015. "A survey on impact assessment of DG and FACTS controllers in power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 846-882.
    17. Dowson, Oscar & Philpott, Andy & Mason, Andrew & Downward, Anthony, 2019. "A multi-stage stochastic optimization model of a pastoral dairy farm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1077-1089.
    18. Schur, Rouven & Gönsch, Jochen & Hassler, Michael, 2019. "Time-consistent, risk-averse dynamic pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 587-603.
    19. Yin, Xuecheng & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & Patel, Bhumi P., 2023. "COVID-19: Data-Driven optimal allocation of ventilator supply under uncertainty and risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 255-275.
    20. Vincent Guigues & Renato D. C. Monteiro, 2021. "Stochastic Dynamic Cutting Plane for Multistage Stochastic Convex Programs," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 189(2), pages 513-559, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:topjnl:v:29:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11750-020-00575-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.