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A seasonal geometric INAR process based on negative binomial thinning operator

Author

Listed:
  • Shengqi Tian

    (Jilin University)

  • Dehui Wang

    (Jilin University)

  • Shuai Cui

    (Jilin University)

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new seasonal geometric integer-valued autoregressive process based on the negative binomial thinning operator with seasonal period s. Some basic probabilistic and statistical properties of the model are discussed. Conditional maximum likelihood estimators are obtained, and the asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Some theoretical results of point forecasts are obtained. Numerical results are presented. At the end, two real data examples are investigated to assess the performance of our new model.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengqi Tian & Dehui Wang & Shuai Cui, 2020. "A seasonal geometric INAR process based on negative binomial thinning operator," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2561-2581, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:61:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s00362-018-1060-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-018-1060-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Jung & A. Tremayne, 2011. "Useful models for time series of counts or simply wrong ones?," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(1), pages 59-91, March.
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    5. Aleksandar S. Nastić & Petra N. Laketa & Miroslav M. Ristić, 2016. "Random environment integer-valued autoregressive process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 267-287, March.
    6. Rong Zhu & Harry Joe, 2006. "Modelling Count Data Time Series with Markov Processes Based on Binomial Thinning," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 725-738, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaomin Li & Haoyu Wei & Xiaoyu Lei, 2021. "Heterogeneous Overdispersed Count Data Regressions via Double Penalized Estimations," Papers 2110.03552, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    2. Shirozhan, M. & Bakouch, Hassan S. & Mohammadpour, M., 2023. "A flexible INAR(1) time series model with dependent zero-inflated count series and medical contagious cases," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 216-230.

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