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Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • D. O. Eliseev

    (Russian New University
    Federal Research Center “Subtropical Scientific Center,” Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu. V. Naumova

    (Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control“, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article examines the problems and development prospects for the international transit of goods along the NSR. The existing restrictions on increasing freight traffic up to 80 million tons per year declared in program documents are identified. An option for its enhancement based on the domestic fleet of Arctic cargo ships is proposed. The article summarizes the main shortcomings of earlier studies assessing the transit capabilities of the NSR. A model for assessing the optimal number of ships for the transportation of goods is proposed taking into account climatic, physical-geographical, technological, and temporal constraints and risks. Within the framework of the model, the cost of goods transportation was estimated for implementing two scenarios of transit traffic.

Suggested Citation

  • D. O. Eliseev & Yu. V. Naumova, 2021. "Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 160-168, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700721020040
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721020040
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hua Xu & Dong Yang & Jinxian Weng, 2018. "Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 514-529, May.
    2. Masahiko Furuichi & Natsuhiko Otsuka, 2018. "Examining quick delivery at an affordable cost by the NSR/SCR-combined shipping in the age of Mega-ships," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1057-1077, November.
    3. Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang & Ng, Szu Hui, 2016. "Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 241-249.
    4. Jérôme Verny & Christophe Grigentin, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Post-Print hal-00568193, HAL.
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    6. Shengda Zhu & Xiaowen Fu & Adolf K.Y. Ng & Meifeng Luo & Ying-En Ge, 2018. "The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 456-477, May.
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