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A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • E. A. Orlova

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. R. Belousov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. I. Galimov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The paper considers the model that estimates the potential GDP and output gap in the economy of Russia in the light of specific features. The model allows us not only to build forecasts of these indicators, but also to obtain the breakdown of unobservable variables to show the contribution of observed factors. Thus, potential GDP is decomposed into the contribution of labor, funds and total factor productivity. The output gap indicator distinguishes foreign trade, conjunctural components and the element explained by monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:31:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700720020070
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720020070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    2. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰 & クボニワ, マサアキ, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    4. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Natalia Akindinova & Kseniya Chekina & Alexandr Yarkin, 2017. "Measuring the Contribution of Demographic Change and Human Capital to Economic Growth in Russia," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 533-561.
    6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    7. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Michael Alexeev & Shlomo Weber, 2013. "Russian economy, the," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2011. "The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 311-325.
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    Cited by:

    1. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Output Gap in Russian Economy: Estimate Based on the IMF’s Multivariate Filter [Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.
    2. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.

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