IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v138y2018i2d10.1007_s11205-017-1693-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Human Development from Environmental Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Salvador Boccaletti Ramos

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

  • José Paula Silva

    (Universidade do Estado de Minas Gerais (UEMG))

  • Cláudia Alexandra Bolela

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

  • Mônica Andrade

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) list the objectives and targets that should be addressed to solve the global issues regarding sustainable development. They encompass the social, economic and environmental dimensions and search for solutions that are able not only to monitor but also to control the operational indicators attributed to each objective. It is expected that many of these indicators are associated to each other and the accurate understanding of these correlations allows to build predictive statistical models that can improve the monitoring and controlling of variables. It would increase the rate of success in achieving the SDG. This study tested a linear multivariate model able to predict the human development index based on environmental variables which are related to SDG 3 (health), 4 (education), 8 (sustainable economic growth and decent work) and 15 (protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems). We fitted the models using the Linear Discriminant Analysis and Best Subset Selection applied to a Linear Multivariate Regression. The model predictive ability was assessed by R2 and cross-validation (CV). The results showed that exposure to unsafe sanitation, access to drinking water, tree cover loss, unsafe water quality, wastewater treatment level, and household air pollution are excellent predictors of human development index of a population, with R2 = 0.94 and 10-fold CV Mean Squared Error equal to 0.0014. This tool can help stakeholders to monitor and control indicators attributed to good health and well-being, quality education, clean water and sanitation, decent work and economic growth, sustainable cities and communities and life on land sustainable development goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvador Boccaletti Ramos & José Paula Silva & Cláudia Alexandra Bolela & Mônica Andrade, 2018. "Prediction of Human Development from Environmental Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 467-477, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:138:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1693-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1693-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-017-1693-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-017-1693-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    2. Milorad Kovacevic, 2010. "Review of HDI Critiques and Potential Improvements," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-33, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    3. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    4. Barry B. Hughes & Mohammod T. Irfan & Jonathan D. Moyer & Dale S. Rothman & José R. Solórzano, 2011. "Forecasting the Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2011-08, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan A. García-Esparza & Javier Pardo & Pablo Altaba & Mario Alberich, 2023. "Validity of Machine Learning in Assessing Large Texts Through Sustainability Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 323-337, April.
    2. Alvaro Cavalcanti & Arthur Teixeira & Karen Pontes, 2019. "Regression Model to Evaluate the Impact of Basic Sanitation Services in Households and Schools on Child Mortality in the Municipalities of the State of Alagoas, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Comim, Flavio & Hirai, Tadashi, 2022. "Sustainability and Human Development Indicators: A Poset Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halla, Pekka & Merino-Saum, Albert, 2021. "Conceptual frameworks for urban sustainability indicators - an empirical analysis," SocArXiv vayq7, Center for Open Science.
    2. Edvins Karnitis & Janis Bicevskis & Girts Karnitis, 2021. "Measuring the Implementation of the Agenda 2030 Vision in Its Comprehensive Sense: Methodology and Tool," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Paulina Schiappacasse & Bernhard Müller & Le Thuy Linh, 2019. "Towards Responsible Aggregate Mining in Vietnam," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Pina Puntillo, 2023. "Circular economy business models: Towards achieving sustainable development goals in the waste management sector—Empirical evidence and theoretical implications," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 941-954, March.
    5. Pilar Lopez-Llompart & G. Mathias Kondolf, 2016. "Encroachments in floodways of the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 513-542, March.
    6. Schlör, Holger & Venghaus, Sandra & Hake, Jürgen-Friedrich, 2018. "The FEW-Nexus city index – Measuring urban resilience," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 382-392.
    7. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019073, HAL.
    8. Cheng, Jianquan & Bertolini, Luca, 2013. "Measuring urban job accessibility with distance decay, competition and diversity," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 100-109.
    9. M. De Donno & M. Pratelli, 2006. "A theory of stochastic integration for bond markets," Papers math/0602532, arXiv.org.
    10. Prilly Oktoviany & Robert Knobloch & Ralf Korn, 2021. "A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1063-1085, December.
    11. Michelle Sheran Sylvester, 2007. "The Career and Family Choices of Women: A Dynamic Analysis of Labor Force Participation, Schooling, Marriage and Fertility Decisions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(3), pages 367-399, July.
    12. Henrekson, Magnus & Johansson, Dan, 2010. "Firm Growth, Institutions and Structural Transformation," Ratio Working Papers 150, The Ratio Institute.
    13. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    14. DAVID M. BLAU & WILBERT van der KLAAUW, 2013. "What Determines Family Structure?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 579-604, January.
    15. Nelson, Ewan & Warren, Peter, 2020. "UK transport decoupling: On track for clean growth in transport?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-51.
    16. Panagiota DIONYSOPOULOU & Georgios SVARNIAS & Theodore PAPAILIAS, 2021. "Total Quality Management In Public Sector, Case Study: Customs Service," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 153-168, June.
    17. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A. & Popov, Viktor U., 2015. "Fine structure of the price–demand relationship in the electricity market: Multi-scale correlation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 215-226.
    18. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, 2009. "Small States, Big Influence: The Overlooked Nordic Influence on the Civilian ESDP," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 81-102, January.
    19. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    20. R. Ebrahimi & S. Choobchian & H. Farhadian & I. Goli & E. Farmandeh & H. Azadi, 2022. "Investigating the effect of vocational education and training on rural women’s empowerment," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:138:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1693-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.